Running the “microCOVID to $” conversion from the other end of the spectrum, the recommendation of 1% COVID risk = 10k μCoV to spend/year would suggest a conversion rate of $1 per μCoV (if your yearly discretionary budget is on the order of $10k/year).
I keep coming back to the “dollars conversion” because there’s a very real sense in which we’re trained our entire lives to evaluate how to price things in dollars; if I tell you a meal costs $25 you have an instant sense of whether that’s cheap or outrageous. Since we don’t have a similar fine-tuned model for risk, piggybacking one on the other could be a good way to build intuition faster.
I keep coming back to the “dollars conversion” because there’s a very real sense in which we’re trained our entire lives to evaluate how to price things in dollars; if I tell you a meal costs $25 you have an instant sense of whether that’s cheap or outrageous. Since we don’t have a similar fine-tuned model for risk, piggybacking one on the other could be a good way to build intuition faster.
That’s a great way to put it. And since the goal of the microCOVID project is behavior change (presumably), I think it’s crucial to get the “have an instant sense of whether it’s cheap or outrageous” part right. Without that I fear that only the most committed people would be motivated enough to change their behavior, but a lot of those people are probably being cautious to begin with.
Anecdotally, I was talking to my brother (not super committed) about it last night, and that data point supported what I’m saying.
Good point, thanks.
Running the “microCOVID to $” conversion from the other end of the spectrum, the recommendation of 1% COVID risk = 10k μCoV to spend/year would suggest a conversion rate of $1 per μCoV (if your yearly discretionary budget is on the order of $10k/year).
I keep coming back to the “dollars conversion” because there’s a very real sense in which we’re trained our entire lives to evaluate how to price things in dollars; if I tell you a meal costs $25 you have an instant sense of whether that’s cheap or outrageous. Since we don’t have a similar fine-tuned model for risk, piggybacking one on the other could be a good way to build intuition faster.
That’s a great way to put it. And since the goal of the microCOVID project is behavior change (presumably), I think it’s crucial to get the “have an instant sense of whether it’s cheap or outrageous” part right. Without that I fear that only the most committed people would be motivated enough to change their behavior, but a lot of those people are probably being cautious to begin with.
Anecdotally, I was talking to my brother (not super committed) about it last night, and that data point supported what I’m saying.