missed opportunities to build a predictive track record and trump
I was reminiscing about my prediction market failures, the clearest “almost won a lot of mana dollars” (if manifold markets had existed back then) was this executive order. The campaign speeches made it fairly obvious, and I’m still salty about a few idiots telling me “stop being hysterical” when I accused him of being what he’s writing on the tin that he is pre inauguration even though I overall reminisce that being a time when my epistemics were way worse than they are now.
However, there does seem like there needs to be a word for “lack of shock but failed to predict concretely”. We were threatmodeling a ton of crazy stuff back then! So what if you can econo-splain “well if you didn’t predict concretely then you were, by definition, shocked”, the more useful and accurate thing sounds more like “we were worried about various classes of populist atrocities, some of which would look hysterical in hindsight, those which would look hysterical in hindsight crowded out the ability to write detailed executive orders just to win the mana dollars / bayes points / etc.”. Early onsets of a populist swing are so anxiety-inducing and chaotic, I forgive myself for making an at least token attempt at security mindset by thinking about how bad it could get, but I shouldn’t do so too quickly—a post manifold markets populist would give me a great opportunity to take things seriously, put a little of that anxiety to use.
So of course, what is the institutional role of metaculus or manifold in the leadup to january 6 2021, or things in that reference class? Again, “didn’t write down a detailed description of what would happen, but isn’t shocked when it does”. It cost 0 IQ points to observe in the months leading up to the election that the administration would be a sore loser in worlds where they lost. So why is it so subtle to leverage this observation to gain actual mana dollars or metaculus ranking? This seems like an open problem to me.
missed opportunities to build a predictive track record and trump
I was reminiscing about my prediction market failures, the clearest “almost won a lot of mana dollars” (if manifold markets had existed back then) was this executive order. The campaign speeches made it fairly obvious, and I’m still salty about a few idiots telling me “stop being hysterical” when I accused him of being what he’s writing on the tin that he is pre inauguration even though I overall reminisce that being a time when my epistemics were way worse than they are now.
However, there does seem like there needs to be a word for “lack of shock but failed to predict concretely”. We were threatmodeling a ton of crazy stuff back then! So what if you can econo-splain “well if you didn’t predict concretely then you were, by definition, shocked”, the more useful and accurate thing sounds more like “we were worried about various classes of populist atrocities, some of which would look hysterical in hindsight, those which would look hysterical in hindsight crowded out the ability to write detailed executive orders just to win the mana dollars / bayes points / etc.”. Early onsets of a populist swing are so anxiety-inducing and chaotic, I forgive myself for making an at least token attempt at security mindset by thinking about how bad it could get, but I shouldn’t do so too quickly—a post manifold markets populist would give me a great opportunity to take things seriously, put a little of that anxiety to use.
So of course, what is the institutional role of metaculus or manifold in the leadup to january 6 2021, or things in that reference class? Again, “didn’t write down a detailed description of what would happen, but isn’t shocked when it does”. It cost 0 IQ points to observe in the months leading up to the election that the administration would be a sore loser in worlds where they lost. So why is it so subtle to leverage this observation to gain actual mana dollars or metaculus ranking? This seems like an open problem to me.