What Adams has said he’s doing is simulating the future along the mainline prediction—i.e. nothing too weird happens—and under his model, Trump is guaranteed to win. Then he says “well, maybe something weird will happen” and drops that confidence by 2%, instead of a more reasonable 30% (or 50%).
What Adams has said he’s doing is simulating the future along the mainline prediction—i.e. nothing too weird happens—and under his model, Trump is guaranteed to win. Then he says “well, maybe something weird will happen” and drops that confidence by 2%, instead of a more reasonable 30% (or 50%).