Forgetting what I know (or think I know) about Scott Adams, Donald Trump, Nate Silver, Jeb Bush, whoever, and going straight to the generic reference class forecast — I’m very sceptical someone could predict US presidential elections with 98% accuracy 14 months in advance.
Well, he’s very likely substantially healthier than the average 69-year-old American man, so I’d be willing to bet at 1⁄50 odds that he will survive to the election.
Forgetting what I know (or think I know) about Scott Adams, Donald Trump, Nate Silver, Jeb Bush, whoever, and going straight to the generic reference class forecast — I’m very sceptical someone could predict US presidential elections with 98% accuracy 14 months in advance.
Actuarial tables give him a roughly 2% chance of dying before the election.
Well, he’s very likely substantially healthier than the average 69-year-old American man, so I’d be willing to bet at 1⁄50 odds that he will survive to the election.