I read this and immediately thought about whether I’d want to take that bet. I feel like AGI by 2030 is about… 50⁄50 for me? Like my confidence interval changes month-to-month over the past couple years, what with a lot of my mental landmarks being passed sooner than I expected, but I’m still at something like 8 years +/- 6 years. So that leaves me not strongly inclined either way. I took a bet about 2030 which I feel good about which had some specifications for a near-but-not-fully-AGI system being extant.
I read this and immediately thought about whether I’d want to take that bet. I feel like AGI by 2030 is about… 50⁄50 for me? Like my confidence interval changes month-to-month over the past couple years, what with a lot of my mental landmarks being passed sooner than I expected, but I’m still at something like 8 years +/- 6 years. So that leaves me not strongly inclined either way. I took a bet about 2030 which I feel good about which had some specifications for a near-but-not-fully-AGI system being extant.