In case of interest, I’ve been conducting AI strategy research with CSER’s AI-FAR group, amongst others a project to survey historical cases of (unilaterally decided; coordinated; or externally imposed) technological restraint/delay, and their lessons for AGI strategy (in terms of differential technological development, or ‘containment’).
(see longlist of candidate case studies, including a [subjective] assessment of the strength of restraint, and the transferability to the AGI case) https://airtable.com/shrVHVYqGnmAyEGsz This is still in-progress work, but will be developed into a paper / post within the next month or so. --- One avenue that I’ve recently gotten interested in, though I’ve only just gotten to read about it and have large uncertainties about it, is the phenomenon of ‘hardware lotteries’ in the historical development of machine learning—see https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.06489 -- to describe cases were the development of particular types of domain specialized compute hardware make it more costly [especially for e.g. academic researchers, probably less so for private labs] to pursue particular new research directions.
In case of interest, I’ve been conducting AI strategy research with CSER’s AI-FAR group, amongst others a project to survey historical cases of (unilaterally decided; coordinated; or externally imposed) technological restraint/delay, and their lessons for AGI strategy (in terms of differential technological development, or ‘containment’).
(see longlist of candidate case studies, including a [subjective] assessment of the strength of restraint, and the transferability to the AGI case)
https://airtable.com/shrVHVYqGnmAyEGsz
This is still in-progress work, but will be developed into a paper / post within the next month or so.
---
One avenue that I’ve recently gotten interested in, though I’ve only just gotten to read about it and have large uncertainties about it, is the phenomenon of ‘hardware lotteries’ in the historical development of machine learning—see https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.06489 -- to describe cases were the development of particular types of domain specialized compute hardware make it more costly [especially for e.g. academic researchers, probably less so for private labs] to pursue particular new research directions.
These are really interesting, thanks for sharing!