Is that true? I thought that I had read Yudkowsky estimating that the probability of an AGI being unfriendly was 30% and that he was working to bring that 30% to 0%. If alignment researchers are convinced that this is more like 90+%, I agree that the argument becomes much more convincing.
I am not sure if he’s given another number explicitly, but I’m almost positive that Yudkowsky does not believe that. The probability that an AGI will be end up being aligned “by default” is epsilon. Maybe he said at one point that there was a 30% chance that AGI will be what destroys the world if it’s developed, given alignment efforts, but that doesn’t sound to me like him either.
You should read the most recent post he made on the subject; it’s extraordinarily pessimistic about our future. He mentions multiple times that he thinks the probability of success here need to be measured in log-odds. He very sarcastically uses april fools at the end as a sort of ambiguity shield, but I don’t think anybody believes he isn’t being serious.
I’m not convinced that the odds mentioned in that post are meant to be taken literally, given it being an April Fools post, as opposed to just metaphorically and pointed in a direction.
He does also mention in that post that in the past he thought the odds were 50%, so perhaps I’m just remembering an old post from sometime between the 50% days and the epsilon days.
I am not sure if he’s given another number explicitly, but I’m almost positive that Yudkowsky does not believe that. The probability that an AGI will be end up being aligned “by default” is epsilon. Maybe he said at one point that there was a 30% chance that AGI will be what destroys the world if it’s developed, given alignment efforts, but that doesn’t sound to me like him either.
You should read the most recent post he made on the subject; it’s extraordinarily pessimistic about our future. He mentions multiple times that he thinks the probability of success here need to be measured in log-odds. He very sarcastically uses april fools at the end as a sort of ambiguity shield, but I don’t think anybody believes he isn’t being serious.
I’m not convinced that the odds mentioned in that post are meant to be taken literally, given it being an April Fools post, as opposed to just metaphorically and pointed in a direction.
He does also mention in that post that in the past he thought the odds were 50%, so perhaps I’m just remembering an old post from sometime between the 50% days and the epsilon days.