The following is a particular take on the future, hopefully demonstrating a realistic path for uploads occurring before AGI.
Imagine a high fidelity emulation of a small mammal brain (on the order of 1 g) is demonstrated, running at about 1/1000th real time. The computational demand for such a code is roughly a million times less than for emulating a human brain in real time.
Such a demonstration would give immense credibility to whole brain emulations, even of humans. It’s not unlikely that the military would be willing to suddenly throw billions into WBE research. That is, the military isn’t without imagination, and once the potential for human brain emulation has been shown, it’s easy to see the incredible ramifications they would bring.
The big unknown would be how much optimization could be made to the small brain uploads. If we can’t optimize the emulations’ code, then the only path to human uploads would be through Moore’s law, which would take two decades: ample time for the neuroscience breakthroughs to impact AGI. If, on the other hand, the codes prove to allow large optimizations, then intense funding from the military could get us to human uploads in a matter of years, leaving very little time for AGI theory to catch up.
My own intuition is that the first whole brain emulations will allow for substantial room for optimization.
The following is a particular take on the future, hopefully demonstrating a realistic path for uploads occurring before AGI.
Imagine a high fidelity emulation of a small mammal brain (on the order of 1 g) is demonstrated, running at about 1/1000th real time. The computational demand for such a code is roughly a million times less than for emulating a human brain in real time.
Such a demonstration would give immense credibility to whole brain emulations, even of humans. It’s not unlikely that the military would be willing to suddenly throw billions into WBE research. That is, the military isn’t without imagination, and once the potential for human brain emulation has been shown, it’s easy to see the incredible ramifications they would bring.
The big unknown would be how much optimization could be made to the small brain uploads. If we can’t optimize the emulations’ code, then the only path to human uploads would be through Moore’s law, which would take two decades: ample time for the neuroscience breakthroughs to impact AGI. If, on the other hand, the codes prove to allow large optimizations, then intense funding from the military could get us to human uploads in a matter of years, leaving very little time for AGI theory to catch up.
My own intuition is that the first whole brain emulations will allow for substantial room for optimization.