Yes but shouldn’t we use the earliest predictions by a person? Even a heavily biased person may produce reasonable estimates given enough data. The first few estimates are likely to be based most on intuition—or bias, in another word.
But which way? There may be a publication bias to ‘true believers’ but then there may also be a bias towards unobjectionably far away estimates like Minsky’s 5 to 500 years. (One wonders what odds Minsky genuinely assigns to the first AI being created in 2500 AD.)
Reasonable. Optimism is an incentive to work, and self-deception is probably relevant.
Evidence for, isn’t it? Especially if they assign even weak belief in significant life-extension breakthroughs, ~2050 is within their conceivable lifespan (since they know humans currently don’t live past ~120, they’d have to be >~80 to be sure of not reaching 2050).
evidence for, apparently
Yes but shouldn’t we use the earliest predictions by a person? Even a heavily biased person may produce reasonable estimates given enough data. The first few estimates are likely to be based most on intuition—or bias, in another word.
But which way? There may be a publication bias to ‘true believers’ but then there may also be a bias towards unobjectionably far away estimates like Minsky’s 5 to 500 years. (One wonders what odds Minsky genuinely assigns to the first AI being created in 2500 AD.)
Reasonable. Optimism is an incentive to work, and self-deception is probably relevant.
Evidence for, isn’t it? Especially if they assign even weak belief in significant life-extension breakthroughs, ~2050 is within their conceivable lifespan (since they know humans currently don’t live past ~120, they’d have to be >~80 to be sure of not reaching 2050).