Edit: [on reflection I think perhaps as a newcomer what you should do is acquaint yourself with what other intelligent and perceptive posts have been made over the last decade on Lesswrong on issues around A.I. extinction before you try and write a high level theory of your own. Maybe even create a excel spreadsheet of all the key ideas as a Post-Graduate researcher does when preparing for their lit review]
I am still not sure what your post is intended to be about, what is it about “A.I. Extinction” is it that you have new insight into? I stress “new”.
As for your re-do of the opening sentence, those two examples are not comparable: getting a prognosis directly from a oncologist who has studied oncology, and presumably you’ve been referred to because they have experience with other cases of people with similar types of cancer, and has seem multiple examples over a number of years develop, is vastly different from the speculative statement of a unnamed “A.I.” researcher. The A.I. researcher doesn’t even have the benefit of analogy, because there has never been throughout the entire Holocene anything close to a mass extinction event of human life perpetuated by a super-intelligence. An oncologist has a huge body of scientific knowledge, case studies, and professional experience to draw upon which are directly comparable, together with intimate and direct access to the patient.
Who specifically is the researcher you have in mind who said that humanity has only 5 years?
If I were to redo your post, I would summarize whatever new and specific insight you have in one sentence and make that the lead sentence. Then spend the rest of the post backing that up with credible sources and examples.
Edit: [on reflection I think perhaps as a newcomer what you should do is acquaint yourself with what other intelligent and perceptive posts have been made over the last decade on Lesswrong on issues around A.I. extinction before you try and write a high level theory of your own. Maybe even create a excel spreadsheet of all the key ideas as a Post-Graduate researcher does when preparing for their lit review]
I am still not sure what your post is intended to be about, what is it about “A.I. Extinction” is it that you have new insight into? I stress “new”.
As for your re-do of the opening sentence, those two examples are not comparable: getting a prognosis directly from a oncologist who has studied oncology, and presumably you’ve been referred to because they have experience with other cases of people with similar types of cancer, and has seem multiple examples over a number of years develop, is vastly different from the speculative statement of a unnamed “A.I.” researcher. The A.I. researcher doesn’t even have the benefit of analogy, because there has never been throughout the entire Holocene anything close to a mass extinction event of human life perpetuated by a super-intelligence. An oncologist has a huge body of scientific knowledge, case studies, and professional experience to draw upon which are directly comparable, together with intimate and direct access to the patient.
Who specifically is the researcher you have in mind who said that humanity has only 5 years?
If I were to redo your post, I would summarize whatever new and specific insight you have in one sentence and make that the lead sentence. Then spend the rest of the post backing that up with credible sources and examples.