…I think another pretty good option is “a master rationalist would definitely avoid surrounding themselves with con artists and frauds and other adversarial actors”.
I think that’s a great option. I’d question a “master rationalist’s” skills if they couldn’t avoid such adversarial actors, or notice them if they slip through the cracks.
I do think there are real skills you are pointing to, but to some extent I prefer the world where I don’t have those skills and in place of that my allies and I coordinate to identify and exclude people who are using the dark arts.
I like your preference. I’ll say some things, but I want to start by emphasizing that I don’t think you’re making a wrong or bad choice.
I want to talk about what I think the Art could be, kind of for aesthetic reasons. This isn’t to assert anything about what you or any given individual should or shouldn’t be doing in any kind of moral sense.
So with that said, here are three points:
(1) I think there’s a strong analogy here to studying combat and war. Yes, if you can be in a pacifist cluster and just exclude folk who are really into applied competitive strategy, then you have something kind of like a cooperate/cooperate equilibrium. But if that’s the whole basis of your culture, it’s extremely vulnerable, the way cooperate-bot is vulnerable in prisoners’ dilemmas. You need military strength, the way a walled garden needs walls. Otherwise folk who have military strength can just come take your resources, even if you try to exclude them at first.
At the risk of using maybe an unfair example, I think what happened with FTX last year maybe illustrates the point.
Clearer examples in my mind are Ziz and Brent. The point not being “These people are bad!” But rather, these people were psychologically extremely potent and lots of folk in the community could neither (a) adequately navigate their impact (myself included!) nor (b) rally ejection/exclusion power until well after they’d already had their impact.
Maybe, you might hope, you can make the ejection/exclusion sensitivity refined enough to work earlier. But if you don’t do that by studying the Dark Arts, and becoming intimately familiar with them, then what you get is a kind of naïve allergic response that Dark Artists can weaponize.
Again, I don’t mean that you in particular or even rationalists in general need to address this. There’s nothing wrong with a hobby. I’m saying that as an Art, it seems like rationality is seriously vulnerable if it doesn’t include masterful familiarity with the Dark Arts. Kind of like, there’s nothing wrong with practicing aikido as a sport, but you’re not gonna get the results you hope for if you train in aikido for self-defense. That art is inadequate for that purpose and needs exposure to realistic combat to matter that way.
(2) …and I think that if the Art of Rationality were to include intimate familiarity with the Dark Arts, it would work way way better.
Things like the planning fallacy or confirmation bias are valuable to track. I could stand to improve my repertoire here for sure.
But the most potent forms of distorted thinking aren’t about sorting out the logic. I think they look more like reaching deep down and finding ways to become immune to things like frame control.
Frame control is an amazing example in my mind precisely because of the hydra-like nature of the beast. How do you defend against frame control without breaking basic things about culture and communication and trust? How do you make it so your cultural and individual defenses don’t themselves become the manual that frame controllers use to get their desired effects?
And this barely begins to touch on the kind of impact that I’d want to call “spiritual”. By which I don’t mean anything supernatural; I’m talking about the deep psychological stuff that (say) conversing with someone deep in a psilocybin trip can do to the tripper. That’s not just frame control. That’s something way deeper, like editing someone’s basic personality operating system code. And sometimes it reaches deeper even than that. And it turns out, you don’t need psychedelics to reach that deep; those chemical tools just open a door that you can open other ways, voluntarily or otherwise, sometimes just by having a conversation.
The standard rationalist defense I’ve noticed against this amounts to mental cramping. Demand everything go through cognition, and anything that seems to try to route around cognition gets a freakout/shutdown/”shame it into oblivion” kind of response. The stuff that disables this immune response is really epistemically strange — things like prefacing with “Here’s a fake framework, it’s all baloney, don’t believe anything I’m saying.” Or doing a bunch of embodied stuff to act low-status and unsure. A Dark Artist who wanted to deeply mess with this community wouldn’t have to work very hard to do some serious damage before getting detected, best as I can tell (and as community history maybe illustrates).
If this community wanted to develop the Art to actually be skillful in these areas… well, it’s hard to predict exactly what that’d create, but I’m pretty sure it’d be glorious. If I think of the Sequences as retooling skeptical materialism, I think we’d maybe see something like a retooling of the best of Buddhist psychotechnology. I think folk here might tend to underestimate how potent that could really be.
(3) It also seems relevant to me that “Dark Arts” is maybe something of a fake category. I’m not sure it even forms a coherent cluster.
Like, is being charismatic a Dark Art? It certainly can be! It can act as a temptation. It seems to be possible to cultivate charisma. But the issue isn’t that charisma is a Dark Art. It’s that charisma is mostly symmetric. So if someone has a few slightly anti-epistemic social strategies in them, and they’re charismatic, this can have a net Dark effect that’s even strategic. But this is a totally normal level of epistemic noise!
Or how about something simpler, like someone using confirmation bias in a way that benefits their beliefs? Astrology is mostly this. Is astrology a Dark Art? Is talking about astrology a Dark Art? It seems mostly just epistemically hazardous… but where’s the line between that and Dark Arts?
How about more innocent things, like when someone is trying to understand systemic racism? Is confirmation bias a helpful pattern-recognizer, or a Dark Art? Maybe it’s potentially in service to Dark Arts, but is a necessary risk to learn the patterns?
I think Vervaeke makes this point really well. The very things that allow us to notice relevance are precisely the things that allow us to be fooled. Rationality (and he explicitly cites this — even the Keith Stanovich stuff) is a literally incomputable practice of navigating both Type I and Type II errors in this balancing act between relevance realization and being fooled.
When I think of central examples of Dark Arts, I think mostly of agents who exploit this ambiguity in order to extract value from others.
…which brings me back to point (1), about this being more a matter of skill in war. The relevant issue isn’t that there are “Dark Arts”. It’s that there are unaligned agents who are trying to strategically fool you. The skill isn’t to detect a Dark toolset; it’s to detect intelligent intent to deceive and extract value.
All of which is to say:
I think a mature Art of Rationality would most definitely include something like skillful navigation of manipulation.
I don’t think every practitioner needs to master every aspect of a mature Art. Much like not all cooks need to know how to make a roux.
But an Art that has detection, exclusion, & avoidance as its only defense against Dark Artists is a much poorer & more vulnerable Art. IMO.
Thanks for the comment. I’m gonna err on the side of noting disagreements and giving brief descriptions of my perspective rather than writing something I think has a good chance of successfully persuading you of my perspective, primarily so as to actually write a reply in a timely fashion.
I don’t want to create an expectation that if you reply then you will reply to each point; rather I’d encourage you if you reply to simply reply to whichever points seem interesting or cruxy to you.
———
1) You make the analogy to having non-violent states. I concur that presently one cannot have states without militaries. I don’t see this as showing that in all domains one must maintain high offensive capabilities in order to have good defenses. I agree one needs defenses, but sometimes good defenses don’t look like “Training thousands of people how to carry out a targeted kill-strike” and instead look like “Not being tempted to reply by rude comments online” or “Checking whether a factual claim someone makes is accurate”.
You say that for LaSota and Brent that folks “could neither (a) adequately navigate their impact (myself included!) nor (b) rally ejection/exclusion power until well after they’d already had their impact” and “Maybe, you might hope, you can make the ejection/exclusion sensitivity refined enough to work earlier”.
I don’t share the sense of difficulty I read in the second of those quotes. I think the Bay Area rationalists (and most other rationalists globally) had some generally extreme lack of boundaries of any sort. The ~only legible boundaries that the Bay Area rationality scene had were (a) are you an employee at one of CFAR/MIRI, and (b) are you invited to CFAR events. MIRI didn’t have much to do with these two individuals, and I think CFAR was choosing a strategy of “we’re not really doing social policing, we’re primarily just selecting on people who have interesting ideas about rationality”. Everything else was highly social and friend-based and it was quite dramatic to ban people from your social events. The REACH was the only communityspace and if I recall correctly explicitly had no boundaries on who could be there. This is an environment where people with lots of red flags will be able to move around with much more ease than in the rest of the world.
I think these problems aren’t that hard once you have community spaces that are willing to enforce boundaries. Over the last few years I’ve run many events and spaces, and often gotten references for people who want to enter the spaces, and definitely chosen to not invite people due to concerns about ethics and responsible behavior. I don’t believe I would’ve accepted these two people into the spaces more than once or twice at most. It’s unpleasant work to enforce boundaries and I’ve made mistakes, but overall I think that there were just not many strong boundaries in these people’s way initially, and they would have been pushed back and dissuaded much earlier if there were.
2) You write:
But the most potent forms of distorted thinking aren’t about sorting out the logic. I think they look more like reaching deep down and finding ways to become immune to things like frame control.
My position is that most thinking isn’t really about reality and isn’t truth-tracking, but that if you are doing that thinking then a lot of important questions are surprisingly easy to answer. Generally doing a few fermi estimates with a few datapoints can get you pretty in touch with the relevant part of reality.
I think there’s a ton of adversarial stuff going on as well, but the primary reason that people haven’t noticed that AI is an x-risk isn’t because people are specifically trying to trick them about the domain, but because the people are not really asking themselves the question and checking.
(And also something about people not having any conception of what actions to take in the fact of a civilizational-scale problem that most of the rest of civilization is not thinking about.)
(I think there’s some argument to be made here that the primary reason people don’t think for themselves is because civilization is trying to make them go crazy, which is interesting, though I still think the solution is primarily “just make a space where you can actually think about the object level”.)
I acknowledge that there are people who are very manipulative and adversarial in illegible ways that are hard to pin down. There’s a whole discussion about offense/defense here and how it plays out. I currently expect that there are simple solutions here. As a pointer, someone I know and respect along with their partner, makes lists of people they know for whom they would not be surprised to later find out that the person did something quite manipulative/bad/unethical, and I think they’ve had some success with this. Also personally I have repeatedly kicked myself thinking “I knew that person was suspicious, why didn’t I say so earlier?” I don’t think these problems are particularly intractable and I do think people know things and I think probably there are good ways to help that info rise up and get shared (I do not claim to have solved this problem). I don’t think it requires you yourself being very skilled at engaging with manipulative people.
The standard rationalist defense I’ve noticed against this amounts to mental cramping. Demand everything go through cognition, and anything that seems to try to route around cognition gets a freakout/shutdown/”shame it into oblivion” kind of response.
Yeah I’ve seen this, and done it somewhat. I think it works in some situations, but there’s a bunch of adversarial situations it definitely doesn’t work. I do agree it seems like a false hope to think that this can be remotely sufficient.
3) I do sometimes look at people who think they’re at war a lot more than me, and they seem very paranoid and to spend so many cognitive cycles modeling ghosts and attacks that aren’t there. It seems so tiring! I suspect you and I disagree about the extent to which we are at war with people epistemically.
Another potentially relevant point here is that I tend to see large groups and institutions as the primary forces deceiving me and tricking me, and much less so individuals. I’m much more scared of Twitter winding its way into my OODA loop than I am of a selfish scheming frame controlling individual. I think it’s much easier for me to keep boundaries against individuals than I am against these much bigger and broader forces.
4)
All of which is to say:
I think a mature Art of Rationality would most definitely include something like skillful navigation of manipulation.
I don’t think every practitioner needs to master every aspect of a mature Art. Much like not all cooks need to know how to make a roux.
But an Art that has detection, exclusion, & avoidance as its only defense against Dark Artists is a much poorer & more vulnerable Art. IMO.
My perspective on these.
Personally I would like to know two or three people who have successfully navigated being manipulated, and hopefully have them write up their accounts of that.
I think aspiring rationalists should maneuver themselves into an environment where they can think clearly and be productive and live well, and maintain that, and not try to learn to survive being manipulated without a clear and present threat that they think they have active reason to move toward rather than away from.
I agree with your last claim. I note that when I read your comment I’m not sure whether you’re saying “this is an important area of improvement” or “this should be central to the art”, which are very different epistemic states.
I’m gonna err on the side of noting disagreements and giving brief descriptions of my perspective rather than writing something I think has a good chance of successfully persuading you of my perspective, primarily so as to actually write a reply in a timely fashion.
Acknowledged.
I don’t see this as showing that in all domains one must maintain high offensive capabilities in order to have good defenses.
Oh, uh, I didn’t mean to imply that. I meant to say that rejecting attention to military power is a bad strategy for defense. A much, much better defensive strategy is to study offense. But that doesn’t need to mean getting good at offense!
(Although I do think it means interacting with offense. Most martial arts fail spectacularly on this point for instance. Pragmatically speaking, you have to have practice actually defending yourself in order to get skillful at defense. And in cases like MMA, that does translate to getting skilled at attack! But that’s incidental. I think you could design good self-defense training systems that have most people never practicing offense.)
I think these problems aren’t that hard once you have community spaces that are willing to enforce boundaries. Over the last few years I’ve run many events and spaces, and often gotten references for people who want to enter the spaces, and definitely chosen to not invite people due to concerns about ethics and responsible behavior. I don’t believe I would’ve accepted these two people into the spaces more than once or twice at most.
Nice. And I agree, boundaries like this can be great for a large range of things.
I don’t think this helps the Art much though.
And it’s hard to know how much your approach doesn’t work.
I also wonder how much this lesson about boundaries arose because of the earlier Dark exploits. In which case it’s actually, ironically, an example of exactly the kind of thing I’m talking about! Only with lessons learned much more painfully than I think was necessary due to their not being sought out.
But also, maybe this is good enough for what you care about. Again, I don’t mean to pressure that you should do anything differently.
I’m mostly pushing back against the implication I read that “Nah, our patches are fine, we’ve got the Dark Arts distanced enough that they’re not an issue.” You literally can’t know that.
My position is that most thinking isn’t really about reality and isn’t truth-tracking, but that if you are doing that thinking then a lot of important questions are surprisingly easy to answer.
Totally agree. And this is a major defense against a lot of the stuff that bamboozles most folk.
I think there’s a ton of adversarial stuff going on as well, but the primary reason that people haven’t noticed that AI is an x-risk isn’t because people are specifically trying to trick them about the domain, but because the people are not really asking themselves the question and checking.
I agree — and I’m not sure why you felt this was relevant to say? I think maybe you thought I was saying something I wasn’t trying to.
(I think there’s some argument to be made here that the primary reason people don’t think for themselves is because civilization is trying to make them go crazy, which is interesting, though I still think the solution is primarily “just make a space where you can actually think about the object level”.)
This might be a crux between us. I’m not sure. But I think you might be seriously underestimating what’s involved in that “just” part (“just make a space…”). Attention on the object-level is key, I 100% agree there. But what defines the space? What protects its boundaries? If culture wants to grab you by the epistemic throat, but you don’t know how it tries to do so, and you just try to “make a space”… you’re going to end up way more confident of the clarity of your thinking than is true.
I acknowledge that there are people who are very manipulative and adversarial in illegible ways that are hard to pin down. […] …I think probably there are good ways to help that info rise up and get shared…. I don’t think it requires you yourself being very skilled at engaging with manipulative people.
I think there’s maybe something of a communication impasse happening here. I agree with what you’re saying here. I think it’s probably good enough for most cases you’re likely to care about, for some reasonable definition of “most”. It also strikes me as obvious that (a) it’s unlikely to cover all the cases you’re likely to care about, and (b) the Art would be deeply enriched by learning how one would skillfully engage with manipulative people. I don’t think everyone who wants to benefit from that enrichment needs to do that engagement, just like not everyone who wants to train in martial arts needs to get good at realistic self-defense.
I’ve said this several times, and you seem to keep objecting to my implied claim of not-that. I’m not sure what’s going on there. Maybe I’m missing your point?
I do sometimes look at people who think they’re at war a lot more than me, and they seem very paranoid and to spend so many cognitive cycles modeling ghosts and attacks that aren’t there. It seems so tiring!
I agree. I think it’s dumb.
I suspect you and I disagree about the extent to which we are at war with people epistemically.
Another potentially relevant point here is that I tend to see large groups and institutions as the primary forces deceiving me and tricking me, and much less so individuals.
Oh! I’m really glad you said this. I didn’t realize we were miscommunicating about this point.
I totally agree. This is what I mean when I’m talking about agents. I’m using adversarial individuals mostly as case studies & training data. The thing I actually care about is the multipolar war going on with already-present unaligned superintelligences. Those are the Dark forces I want to know how to be immune to.
I’m awfully suspicious of someone’s ability to navigate hostile psychofauna if literally their only defense against (say) a frame controller is “Sus, let’s exclude them.” You can’t exclude Google or wokism or collective anxiety the same way.
Having experienced frame control clawing at my face, and feeling myself become immune without having to brace… and noticing how that skill generalized to some of the tactics that the psychofauna use…
…it just seems super obvious to me that this is really core DADA. Non-cognitive, very deep, very key.
Personally I would like to know two or three people who have successfully navigated being manipulated, and hopefully have them write up their accounts of that.
Ditto!
I think aspiring rationalists should maneuver themselves into an environment where they can think clearly and be productive and live well, and maintain that, and not try to learn to survive being manipulated without a clear and present threat that they think they have active reason to move toward rather than away from.
Totally agree with the first part. I think the whole thing is a fine choice. I notice my stance of “Epistemic warriors would still be super useful” is totally unmoved thus far though. (And I’m reminded of your caveat at the very beginning!)
I’m reminded of the John Adams quote: “I must study Politicks and War that my sons may have liberty to study Mathematicks and Philosophy. My sons ought to study mathematics and Philosophy, Geography, natural History, naval Architecture, navigation, Commerce and Agriculature, in order to give their Children a right to study Painting, Poetry, Musick, Architecture, Statuary, Tapestry and Porcelaine.”
I note that when I read your comment I’m not sure whether you’re saying “this is an important area of improvement” or “this should be central to the art”, which are very different epistemic states.
Oh, I don’t know what should or shouldn’t be central to the Art.
It just strikes me that rationality currently is in a similar state as aikido.
Aikido claims to be an effective form of self-defense. (Or at least it used to! Maybe it’s been embarrassed out of saying that anymore?) It’s a fine practice, it has immense value… it’s just not what it says on the tin.
If it wanted to be what it claims, it needs to do things like add pressure testing. Realistic combat. Going into MMA tournaments and coming back with refinements to what it’s doing.
And that could be done in a way that honors its spirit! It can add the constraints that are key to its philosophy, like “Protect everyone involved, including the attacker.”
But maybe it doesn’t care about that. Maybe it just wants to be a sport and discipline.
That’s totally fine!
It does seem weird for it to continue claiming to be effective self-defense though. Like it needs its fake meaning to be something its practitioners believe in.
I think rationality is in a similar state. It has some really good stuff in it. Really good. It’s a great domain.
But I just don’t see it mattering for the power plays. I think rationalists don’t understand power, the same way aikido practitioners don’t understand fighting. And they seem to be in a similar epistemic state about it: they think they basically do, but they don’t pressure-test their understanding to check, best as I can tell.
So of your two options, it’s more like “important area for improvement”… roughly like pressure-testing could be an important area of improvement for aikido. It’d probably become a kind of central if it were integrated! But I don’t know.
And, I think the current state of rationality is fine.
Just weak in one axis it sometimes claims to care about.
COVID was one of the MMA-style arenas for different egregores to see which might come out ‘on top’ in an epistemically unfriendly environment.
I have a lot of opinions on this that are more controversial than I’m willing to go into right now. But I wonder what else will work as one of these “testing arenas.”
The standard rationalist defense I’ve noticed against this amounts to mental cramping. Demand everything go through cognition, and anything that seems to try to route around cognition gets a freakout/shutdown/”shame it into oblivion” kind of response. The stuff that disables this immune response is really epistemically strange — things like prefacing with “Here’s a fake framework, it’s all baloney, don’t believe anything I’m saying.” Or doing a bunch of embodied stuff to act low-status and unsure. A Dark Artist who wanted to deeply mess with this community wouldn’t have to work very hard to do some serious damage before getting detected, best as I can tell (and as community history maybe illustrates).
Can you spell this out a little more? Did Brent and LaSota employ baloney-disclaimers and uncertainty-signaling in order to bypass people’s defenses?
Can you spell this out a little more? Did Brent and LaSota employ baloney-disclaimers and uncertainty-signaling in order to bypass people’s defenses?
I think Brent did something different from what I’m describing — a bit more like judo plus DOS attacks.
I’m not as familiar with LaSota’s methods. I talked with them several times, but mostly before I learned to detect the level of psychological impact I’m talking about with any detail. Thinking back to those interactions, I remember it feeling like LaSota was confidently asserting moral and existential things that threatened to make me feel inadequate and immoral if I didn’t go along with what they were saying and seek out the brain hemisphere hacking stuff they were talking about. And maybe even then I’d turn out to be innately “non-good”.
(Implied here is a type of Dark hack I find most folk don’t have good defenses against other than refusing to reason and blankly shutting down. It works absurdly well on people who believe they should do what they intellectually conclude makes sense to do.)
The thing I was referring to is something I personally stumbled across. IME rationalists on the whole are generally more likely to take in something said in a low-status way. It’s like the usual analyze-and-scrutinize machinery kind of turns off.
One of the weirder examples is, just ending sentences as though they’re questions? I’m guessing it’s because ending each thing with confidence as a statement is a kind of powerful assertion. But, I mean, if the person talking is less confident then maybe what they’re saying is pretty safe to consider?
(I’m demoing back & forth in that paragraph, in case that wasn’t clear.)
I think LaSota might have been doing something like this too, but I’m not sure.
(As a maybe weird example: Notice how that last sentence is in fact caveated, but it’s still confident. I’m quite sure this is my supposition. I’m sure I’m not sure of the implied conclusion. I feel solid in all of this. My impression is, this kind of solidity is a little (sometimes a lot) disturbing to many rationalists (with some exceptions I don’t understand very well — like how Zvi and Eliezer can mostly get away with brazen confidence without much pushback). By my models, the content of the above sentence would have been easier to receive if rewritten along the lines of, “I’m really not sure, but based on my really shaky memories, I kinda wonder if LaSota might have been doing something like this too — but don’t believe me too much!”)
Notice how that last sentence is in fact caveated, but it’s still confident. I’m quite sure this is my supposition. I’m sure I’m not sure of the implied conclusion. I feel solid in all of this.
I think that’s a great option. I’d question a “master rationalist’s” skills if they couldn’t avoid such adversarial actors, or notice them if they slip through the cracks.
I like your preference. I’ll say some things, but I want to start by emphasizing that I don’t think you’re making a wrong or bad choice.
I want to talk about what I think the Art could be, kind of for aesthetic reasons. This isn’t to assert anything about what you or any given individual should or shouldn’t be doing in any kind of moral sense.
So with that said, here are three points:
(1) I think there’s a strong analogy here to studying combat and war. Yes, if you can be in a pacifist cluster and just exclude folk who are really into applied competitive strategy, then you have something kind of like a cooperate/cooperate equilibrium. But if that’s the whole basis of your culture, it’s extremely vulnerable, the way cooperate-bot is vulnerable in prisoners’ dilemmas. You need military strength, the way a walled garden needs walls. Otherwise folk who have military strength can just come take your resources, even if you try to exclude them at first.
At the risk of using maybe an unfair example, I think what happened with FTX last year maybe illustrates the point.
Clearer examples in my mind are Ziz and Brent. The point not being “These people are bad!” But rather, these people were psychologically extremely potent and lots of folk in the community could neither (a) adequately navigate their impact (myself included!) nor (b) rally ejection/exclusion power until well after they’d already had their impact.
Maybe, you might hope, you can make the ejection/exclusion sensitivity refined enough to work earlier. But if you don’t do that by studying the Dark Arts, and becoming intimately familiar with them, then what you get is a kind of naïve allergic response that Dark Artists can weaponize.
Again, I don’t mean that you in particular or even rationalists in general need to address this. There’s nothing wrong with a hobby. I’m saying that as an Art, it seems like rationality is seriously vulnerable if it doesn’t include masterful familiarity with the Dark Arts. Kind of like, there’s nothing wrong with practicing aikido as a sport, but you’re not gonna get the results you hope for if you train in aikido for self-defense. That art is inadequate for that purpose and needs exposure to realistic combat to matter that way.
(2) …and I think that if the Art of Rationality were to include intimate familiarity with the Dark Arts, it would work way way better.
Things like the planning fallacy or confirmation bias are valuable to track. I could stand to improve my repertoire here for sure.
But the most potent forms of distorted thinking aren’t about sorting out the logic. I think they look more like reaching deep down and finding ways to become immune to things like frame control.
Frame control is an amazing example in my mind precisely because of the hydra-like nature of the beast. How do you defend against frame control without breaking basic things about culture and communication and trust? How do you make it so your cultural and individual defenses don’t themselves become the manual that frame controllers use to get their desired effects?
And this barely begins to touch on the kind of impact that I’d want to call “spiritual”. By which I don’t mean anything supernatural; I’m talking about the deep psychological stuff that (say) conversing with someone deep in a psilocybin trip can do to the tripper. That’s not just frame control. That’s something way deeper, like editing someone’s basic personality operating system code. And sometimes it reaches deeper even than that. And it turns out, you don’t need psychedelics to reach that deep; those chemical tools just open a door that you can open other ways, voluntarily or otherwise, sometimes just by having a conversation.
The standard rationalist defense I’ve noticed against this amounts to mental cramping. Demand everything go through cognition, and anything that seems to try to route around cognition gets a freakout/shutdown/”shame it into oblivion” kind of response. The stuff that disables this immune response is really epistemically strange — things like prefacing with “Here’s a fake framework, it’s all baloney, don’t believe anything I’m saying.” Or doing a bunch of embodied stuff to act low-status and unsure. A Dark Artist who wanted to deeply mess with this community wouldn’t have to work very hard to do some serious damage before getting detected, best as I can tell (and as community history maybe illustrates).
If this community wanted to develop the Art to actually be skillful in these areas… well, it’s hard to predict exactly what that’d create, but I’m pretty sure it’d be glorious. If I think of the Sequences as retooling skeptical materialism, I think we’d maybe see something like a retooling of the best of Buddhist psychotechnology. I think folk here might tend to underestimate how potent that could really be.
(…and I also think that it’s maybe utterly critical for sorting out AI alignment. But while I think that’s a very important point, it’s not needed for my main message for this exchange.)
(3) It also seems relevant to me that “Dark Arts” is maybe something of a fake category. I’m not sure it even forms a coherent cluster.
Like, is being charismatic a Dark Art? It certainly can be! It can act as a temptation. It seems to be possible to cultivate charisma. But the issue isn’t that charisma is a Dark Art. It’s that charisma is mostly symmetric. So if someone has a few slightly anti-epistemic social strategies in them, and they’re charismatic, this can have a net Dark effect that’s even strategic. But this is a totally normal level of epistemic noise!
Or how about something simpler, like someone using confirmation bias in a way that benefits their beliefs? Astrology is mostly this. Is astrology a Dark Art? Is talking about astrology a Dark Art? It seems mostly just epistemically hazardous… but where’s the line between that and Dark Arts?
How about more innocent things, like when someone is trying to understand systemic racism? Is confirmation bias a helpful pattern-recognizer, or a Dark Art? Maybe it’s potentially in service to Dark Arts, but is a necessary risk to learn the patterns?
I think Vervaeke makes this point really well. The very things that allow us to notice relevance are precisely the things that allow us to be fooled. Rationality (and he explicitly cites this — even the Keith Stanovich stuff) is a literally incomputable practice of navigating both Type I and Type II errors in this balancing act between relevance realization and being fooled.
When I think of central examples of Dark Arts, I think mostly of agents who exploit this ambiguity in order to extract value from others.
…which brings me back to point (1), about this being more a matter of skill in war. The relevant issue isn’t that there are “Dark Arts”. It’s that there are unaligned agents who are trying to strategically fool you. The skill isn’t to detect a Dark toolset; it’s to detect intelligent intent to deceive and extract value.
All of which is to say:
I think a mature Art of Rationality would most definitely include something like skillful navigation of manipulation.
I don’t think every practitioner needs to master every aspect of a mature Art. Much like not all cooks need to know how to make a roux.
But an Art that has detection, exclusion, & avoidance as its only defense against Dark Artists is a much poorer & more vulnerable Art. IMO.
Thanks for the comment. I’m gonna err on the side of noting disagreements and giving brief descriptions of my perspective rather than writing something I think has a good chance of successfully persuading you of my perspective, primarily so as to actually write a reply in a timely fashion.
I don’t want to create an expectation that if you reply then you will reply to each point; rather I’d encourage you if you reply to simply reply to whichever points seem interesting or cruxy to you.
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1) You make the analogy to having non-violent states. I concur that presently one cannot have states without militaries. I don’t see this as showing that in all domains one must maintain high offensive capabilities in order to have good defenses. I agree one needs defenses, but sometimes good defenses don’t look like “Training thousands of people how to carry out a targeted kill-strike” and instead look like “Not being tempted to reply by rude comments online” or “Checking whether a factual claim someone makes is accurate”.
You say that for LaSota and Brent that folks “could neither (a) adequately navigate their impact (myself included!) nor (b) rally ejection/exclusion power until well after they’d already had their impact” and “Maybe, you might hope, you can make the ejection/exclusion sensitivity refined enough to work earlier”.
I don’t share the sense of difficulty I read in the second of those quotes. I think the Bay Area rationalists (and most other rationalists globally) had some generally extreme lack of boundaries of any sort. The ~only legible boundaries that the Bay Area rationality scene had were (a) are you an employee at one of CFAR/MIRI, and (b) are you invited to CFAR events. MIRI didn’t have much to do with these two individuals, and I think CFAR was choosing a strategy of “we’re not really doing social policing, we’re primarily just selecting on people who have interesting ideas about rationality”. Everything else was highly social and friend-based and it was quite dramatic to ban people from your social events. The REACH was the only community space and if I recall correctly explicitly had no boundaries on who could be there. This is an environment where people with lots of red flags will be able to move around with much more ease than in the rest of the world.
I think these problems aren’t that hard once you have community spaces that are willing to enforce boundaries. Over the last few years I’ve run many events and spaces, and often gotten references for people who want to enter the spaces, and definitely chosen to not invite people due to concerns about ethics and responsible behavior. I don’t believe I would’ve accepted these two people into the spaces more than once or twice at most. It’s unpleasant work to enforce boundaries and I’ve made mistakes, but overall I think that there were just not many strong boundaries in these people’s way initially, and they would have been pushed back and dissuaded much earlier if there were.
2) You write:
My position is that most thinking isn’t really about reality and isn’t truth-tracking, but that if you are doing that thinking then a lot of important questions are surprisingly easy to answer. Generally doing a few fermi estimates with a few datapoints can get you pretty in touch with the relevant part of reality.
I think there’s a ton of adversarial stuff going on as well, but the primary reason that people haven’t noticed that AI is an x-risk isn’t because people are specifically trying to trick them about the domain, but because the people are not really asking themselves the question and checking.
(And also something about people not having any conception of what actions to take in the fact of a civilizational-scale problem that most of the rest of civilization is not thinking about.)
(I think there’s some argument to be made here that the primary reason people don’t think for themselves is because civilization is trying to make them go crazy, which is interesting, though I still think the solution is primarily “just make a space where you can actually think about the object level”.)
I acknowledge that there are people who are very manipulative and adversarial in illegible ways that are hard to pin down. There’s a whole discussion about offense/defense here and how it plays out. I currently expect that there are simple solutions here. As a pointer, someone I know and respect along with their partner, makes lists of people they know for whom they would not be surprised to later find out that the person did something quite manipulative/bad/unethical, and I think they’ve had some success with this. Also personally I have repeatedly kicked myself thinking “I knew that person was suspicious, why didn’t I say so earlier?” I don’t think these problems are particularly intractable and I do think people know things and I think probably there are good ways to help that info rise up and get shared (I do not claim to have solved this problem). I don’t think it requires you yourself being very skilled at engaging with manipulative people.
Yeah I’ve seen this, and done it somewhat. I think it works in some situations, but there’s a bunch of adversarial situations it definitely doesn’t work. I do agree it seems like a false hope to think that this can be remotely sufficient.
3) I do sometimes look at people who think they’re at war a lot more than me, and they seem very paranoid and to spend so many cognitive cycles modeling ghosts and attacks that aren’t there. It seems so tiring! I suspect you and I disagree about the extent to which we are at war with people epistemically.
Another potentially relevant point here is that I tend to see large groups and institutions as the primary forces deceiving me and tricking me, and much less so individuals. I’m much more scared of Twitter winding its way into my OODA loop than I am of a selfish scheming frame controlling individual. I think it’s much easier for me to keep boundaries against individuals than I am against these much bigger and broader forces.
4)
My perspective on these.
Personally I would like to know two or three people who have successfully navigated being manipulated, and hopefully have them write up their accounts of that.
I think aspiring rationalists should maneuver themselves into an environment where they can think clearly and be productive and live well, and maintain that, and not try to learn to survive being manipulated without a clear and present threat that they think they have active reason to move toward rather than away from.
I agree with your last claim. I note that when I read your comment I’m not sure whether you’re saying “this is an important area of improvement” or “this should be central to the art”, which are very different epistemic states.
Acknowledged.
Oh, uh, I didn’t mean to imply that. I meant to say that rejecting attention to military power is a bad strategy for defense. A much, much better defensive strategy is to study offense. But that doesn’t need to mean getting good at offense!
(Although I do think it means interacting with offense. Most martial arts fail spectacularly on this point for instance. Pragmatically speaking, you have to have practice actually defending yourself in order to get skillful at defense. And in cases like MMA, that does translate to getting skilled at attack! But that’s incidental. I think you could design good self-defense training systems that have most people never practicing offense.)
Nice. And I agree, boundaries like this can be great for a large range of things.
I don’t think this helps the Art much though.
And it’s hard to know how much your approach doesn’t work.
I also wonder how much this lesson about boundaries arose because of the earlier Dark exploits. In which case it’s actually, ironically, an example of exactly the kind of thing I’m talking about! Only with lessons learned much more painfully than I think was necessary due to their not being sought out.
But also, maybe this is good enough for what you care about. Again, I don’t mean to pressure that you should do anything differently.
I’m mostly pushing back against the implication I read that “Nah, our patches are fine, we’ve got the Dark Arts distanced enough that they’re not an issue.” You literally can’t know that.
Totally agree. And this is a major defense against a lot of the stuff that bamboozles most folk.
I agree — and I’m not sure why you felt this was relevant to say? I think maybe you thought I was saying something I wasn’t trying to.
This might be a crux between us. I’m not sure. But I think you might be seriously underestimating what’s involved in that “just” part (“just make a space…”). Attention on the object-level is key, I 100% agree there. But what defines the space? What protects its boundaries? If culture wants to grab you by the epistemic throat, but you don’t know how it tries to do so, and you just try to “make a space”… you’re going to end up way more confident of the clarity of your thinking than is true.
I think there’s maybe something of a communication impasse happening here. I agree with what you’re saying here. I think it’s probably good enough for most cases you’re likely to care about, for some reasonable definition of “most”. It also strikes me as obvious that (a) it’s unlikely to cover all the cases you’re likely to care about, and (b) the Art would be deeply enriched by learning how one would skillfully engage with manipulative people. I don’t think everyone who wants to benefit from that enrichment needs to do that engagement, just like not everyone who wants to train in martial arts needs to get good at realistic self-defense.
I’ve said this several times, and you seem to keep objecting to my implied claim of not-that. I’m not sure what’s going on there. Maybe I’m missing your point?
I agree. I think it’s dumb.
Oh! I’m really glad you said this. I didn’t realize we were miscommunicating about this point.
I totally agree. This is what I mean when I’m talking about agents. I’m using adversarial individuals mostly as case studies & training data. The thing I actually care about is the multipolar war going on with already-present unaligned superintelligences. Those are the Dark forces I want to know how to be immune to.
I’m awfully suspicious of someone’s ability to navigate hostile psychofauna if literally their only defense against (say) a frame controller is “Sus, let’s exclude them.” You can’t exclude Google or wokism or collective anxiety the same way.
Having experienced frame control clawing at my face, and feeling myself become immune without having to brace… and noticing how that skill generalized to some of the tactics that the psychofauna use…
…it just seems super obvious to me that this is really core DADA. Non-cognitive, very deep, very key.
Ditto!
Totally agree with the first part. I think the whole thing is a fine choice. I notice my stance of “Epistemic warriors would still be super useful” is totally unmoved thus far though. (And I’m reminded of your caveat at the very beginning!)
I’m reminded of the John Adams quote: “I must study Politicks and War that my sons may have liberty to study Mathematicks and Philosophy. My sons ought to study mathematics and Philosophy, Geography, natural History, naval Architecture, navigation, Commerce and Agriculature, in order to give their Children a right to study Painting, Poetry, Musick, Architecture, Statuary, Tapestry and Porcelaine.”
Oh, I don’t know what should or shouldn’t be central to the Art.
It just strikes me that rationality currently is in a similar state as aikido.
Aikido claims to be an effective form of self-defense. (Or at least it used to! Maybe it’s been embarrassed out of saying that anymore?) It’s a fine practice, it has immense value… it’s just not what it says on the tin.
If it wanted to be what it claims, it needs to do things like add pressure testing. Realistic combat. Going into MMA tournaments and coming back with refinements to what it’s doing.
And that could be done in a way that honors its spirit! It can add the constraints that are key to its philosophy, like “Protect everyone involved, including the attacker.”
But maybe it doesn’t care about that. Maybe it just wants to be a sport and discipline.
That’s totally fine!
It does seem weird for it to continue claiming to be effective self-defense though. Like it needs its fake meaning to be something its practitioners believe in.
I think rationality is in a similar state. It has some really good stuff in it. Really good. It’s a great domain.
But I just don’t see it mattering for the power plays. I think rationalists don’t understand power, the same way aikido practitioners don’t understand fighting. And they seem to be in a similar epistemic state about it: they think they basically do, but they don’t pressure-test their understanding to check, best as I can tell.
So of your two options, it’s more like “important area for improvement”… roughly like pressure-testing could be an important area of improvement for aikido. It’d probably become a kind of central if it were integrated! But I don’t know.
And, I think the current state of rationality is fine.
Just weak in one axis it sometimes claims to care about.
Musings:
COVID was one of the MMA-style arenas for different egregores to see which might come out ‘on top’ in an epistemically unfriendly environment.
I have a lot of opinions on this that are more controversial than I’m willing to go into right now. But I wonder what else will work as one of these “testing arenas.”
Can you spell this out a little more? Did Brent and LaSota employ baloney-disclaimers and uncertainty-signaling in order to bypass people’s defenses?
I think Brent did something different from what I’m describing — a bit more like judo plus DOS attacks.
I’m not as familiar with LaSota’s methods. I talked with them several times, but mostly before I learned to detect the level of psychological impact I’m talking about with any detail. Thinking back to those interactions, I remember it feeling like LaSota was confidently asserting moral and existential things that threatened to make me feel inadequate and immoral if I didn’t go along with what they were saying and seek out the brain hemisphere hacking stuff they were talking about. And maybe even then I’d turn out to be innately “non-good”.
(Implied here is a type of Dark hack I find most folk don’t have good defenses against other than refusing to reason and blankly shutting down. It works absurdly well on people who believe they should do what they intellectually conclude makes sense to do.)
The thing I was referring to is something I personally stumbled across. IME rationalists on the whole are generally more likely to take in something said in a low-status way. It’s like the usual analyze-and-scrutinize machinery kind of turns off.
One of the weirder examples is, just ending sentences as though they’re questions? I’m guessing it’s because ending each thing with confidence as a statement is a kind of powerful assertion. But, I mean, if the person talking is less confident then maybe what they’re saying is pretty safe to consider?
(I’m demoing back & forth in that paragraph, in case that wasn’t clear.)
I think LaSota might have been doing something like this too, but I’m not sure.
(As a maybe weird example: Notice how that last sentence is in fact caveated, but it’s still confident. I’m quite sure this is my supposition. I’m sure I’m not sure of the implied conclusion. I feel solid in all of this. My impression is, this kind of solidity is a little (sometimes a lot) disturbing to many rationalists (with some exceptions I don’t understand very well — like how Zvi and Eliezer can mostly get away with brazen confidence without much pushback). By my models, the content of the above sentence would have been easier to receive if rewritten along the lines of, “I’m really not sure, but based on my really shaky memories, I kinda wonder if LaSota might have been doing something like this too — but don’t believe me too much!”)
Does that answer what you’d hoped?
Perhaps relevant: Nate Soares does this too, based on one of his old essays. And I think it works very well for him.