Good point. I think it’s helpful when people working schemes with the rough flavor of “we do X, and then X helps us get to a useful AI that does not takeover” try to specify roughly how capable they expect the “useful AI does not takeover” to be.
Would be curious to hear more about the kinds of tasks that Ryan and Buck expect the first “transformatively useful but still controllable” AI will be able to do (perhaps expressed in multiplier terms, like 30X human SW engineer, perhaps expressed in terms of the kinds of novel reasoning it can perform, and perhaps expressed in terms of the kinds of research tasks or policy tasks it would be able to meaningfully help with).
Good point. I think it’s helpful when people working schemes with the rough flavor of “we do X, and then X helps us get to a useful AI that does not takeover” try to specify roughly how capable they expect the “useful AI does not takeover” to be.
Would be curious to hear more about the kinds of tasks that Ryan and Buck expect the first “transformatively useful but still controllable” AI will be able to do (perhaps expressed in multiplier terms, like 30X human SW engineer, perhaps expressed in terms of the kinds of novel reasoning it can perform, and perhaps expressed in terms of the kinds of research tasks or policy tasks it would be able to meaningfully help with).