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(with non-binary those graphs, as it seems to me, get relatively useless)
They are at least fairly comparable to the format in Kurzweil’s self-assessment, and so useful for putting the high accuracy ratings reported there into perspective.
Estimate the complexity in bits of each prediction? ;)
How complex, in bits is: “it will rain in Oxford at some point this year”? Very. And yet, I would hesitate to call that an impressive prediction...
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They are at least fairly comparable to the format in Kurzweil’s self-assessment, and so useful for putting the high accuracy ratings reported there into perspective.
Estimate the complexity in bits of each prediction? ;)
How complex, in bits is: “it will rain in Oxford at some point this year”? Very. And yet, I would hesitate to call that an impressive prediction...