In the future, we might distinguish “difficult” predictions from trivial ones by seeing if the predictions are unlike the predictions made by others at the same time. This is easy to do if we evaluate contemporary predictions.
But I have no idea how to accomplish this when looking back on past predictions. I can’t help but to feel that some of Kurzweil’s predictions are trivial, yet how can we tell for sure?
In the future, we might distinguish “difficult” predictions from trivial ones by seeing if the predictions are unlike the predictions made by others at the same time. This is easy to do if we evaluate contemporary predictions.
But I have no idea how to accomplish this when looking back on past predictions. I can’t help but to feel that some of Kurzweil’s predictions are trivial, yet how can we tell for sure?