Doyou agree with automation being the real missing piece to post-(basic)scarcity?
No. I believe automation is a component towards post-scarcity—but one that’s already largely in place.
The median can stagnate (or even asymptote to zero) even as the mean diverges to infinity. Any attempt to transition to post-scarcity needs to address this, as does any attempt to state we are on the path towards a post-scarcity society based on mean-value estimates.
I would state (without much backup, so take this with a grain of salt) that this is the main missing piece.
US Meats Poultry, and Fish CPI / US median family income was less in 2014 than it was in 1992. (Alternatively: a median US family could buy the CPI MPF basket in 1992 using a lower percentage of their income than in 2014.) (Source is https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEFAINUSA672N, but there’s no way to deeplink an advanced graph that I can find. So: edit graph → edit line 1 → customize data → “Producer Price Index by Commodity: Processed Foods and Feeds: Meats, Poultry, and Fish” → Add → formula → b/a → Apply. Series in question are WPS022 and MEFAINUSA646N.)
(Admittedly, this is comparing a peak with a trough.)
(If anyone could find (unadjusted) total-income info for the bottom, say, 1% of people in the US, over a long timescale, that would be interesting.)
No. I believe automation is a component towards post-scarcity—but one that’s already largely in place.
The median can stagnate (or even asymptote to zero) even as the mean diverges to infinity. Any attempt to transition to post-scarcity needs to address this, as does any attempt to state we are on the path towards a post-scarcity society based on mean-value estimates.
I would state (without much backup, so take this with a grain of salt) that this is the main missing piece.
US Meats Poultry, and Fish CPI / US median family income was less in 2014 than it was in 1992. (Alternatively: a median US family could buy the CPI MPF basket in 1992 using a lower percentage of their income than in 2014.) (Source is https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEFAINUSA672N, but there’s no way to deeplink an advanced graph that I can find. So: edit graph → edit line 1 → customize data → “Producer Price Index by Commodity: Processed Foods and Feeds: Meats, Poultry, and Fish” → Add → formula → b/a → Apply. Series in question are WPS022 and MEFAINUSA646N.)
(Admittedly, this is comparing a peak with a trough.)
(If anyone could find (unadjusted) total-income info for the bottom, say, 1% of people in the US, over a long timescale, that would be interesting.)