(at least… in the absence of functional human responses).
This is the limiting factor of our ability to infer R0 from reported cases at this early stage in practice. This monkeypox outbreak in Europe provoked an immediate and intense social response, both to identify cases and to prevent further spread.
The number of cases reported is a function of both the actual extent of disease spread and the increased amount of testing and public awareness, which relates in a complicated way to disease spread and to earlier public awareness efforts.
Clearly, we can experience such a huge spike of viral spread that increased testing can’t possibly account for it, as we saw in Omicron.
In the first few days of the monkeypox outbreak, increased case reports were probably a function of disease spread. Now, though, I am very uncertain about whether to attribute increased cases to better testing and social awareness for a disease that was already there, or to actual viral spread.
If we see about 1,000 cases or more in the next couple weeks, though, or see it achieving community spread outside Europe, I’ll definitely start to think this is getting out of hand. By then, we’ll also have more information about its genetics, how it spreads, and the CFR among the European population.
This is the limiting factor of our ability to infer R0 from reported cases at this early stage in practice. This monkeypox outbreak in Europe provoked an immediate and intense social response, both to identify cases and to prevent further spread.
The number of cases reported is a function of both the actual extent of disease spread and the increased amount of testing and public awareness, which relates in a complicated way to disease spread and to earlier public awareness efforts.
Clearly, we can experience such a huge spike of viral spread that increased testing can’t possibly account for it, as we saw in Omicron.
In the first few days of the monkeypox outbreak, increased case reports were probably a function of disease spread. Now, though, I am very uncertain about whether to attribute increased cases to better testing and social awareness for a disease that was already there, or to actual viral spread.
If we see about 1,000 cases or more in the next couple weeks, though, or see it achieving community spread outside Europe, I’ll definitely start to think this is getting out of hand. By then, we’ll also have more information about its genetics, how it spreads, and the CFR among the European population.