Yeah, it does deserve more careful thought, especially since I expect almost all of my probability mass on catastrophe to be human caused, and more importantly I still think that it’s an important enough problem that resources should go to thinking about it.
Offense/defense balance is such a giant crux for me. I would take quite different actions if I saw plausible arguments that defense will win over offense. I’m astonished that I don’t know any literature on this. Large parts of the space seem to be quite strongly convinced that offense will win or defense will win (at least, else their actions don’t make sense to me), but I’ve very rarely seen this assumption debated explicitly. It would really be very helpful if someone could point me to sources. Right now I have a twitter poll with 30 votes (result: offense wins) and an old LW post to go by.
Yeah, it does deserve more careful thought, especially since I expect almost all of my probability mass on catastrophe to be human caused, and more importantly I still think that it’s an important enough problem that resources should go to thinking about it.
Offense/defense balance is such a giant crux for me. I would take quite different actions if I saw plausible arguments that defense will win over offense. I’m astonished that I don’t know any literature on this. Large parts of the space seem to be quite strongly convinced that offense will win or defense will win (at least, else their actions don’t make sense to me), but I’ve very rarely seen this assumption debated explicitly. It would really be very helpful if someone could point me to sources. Right now I have a twitter poll with 30 votes (result: offense wins) and an old LW post to go by.