I have a hypothesis: being offered a bet that looks pumpable is generally sufficient evidence that the bet is losing, and the few people who still bet do so due to extraneous beliefs (e.g. a belief they are slightly psychic or can otherwise influence the chances; one can imagine a quantum and anthropic reasoning—confused person believe that by expecting very hard the future where he wins or committing to spending more time sleeping if he loses he can affect his subjective probability. One could also deduce the workings of PRNG in the slot machine, and then win, or lose if they’re wrong about the PRNG. One could believe their subconscious can deduce PRNG, then be unlucky to confirm this at some confidence level).
I have a hypothesis: being offered a bet that looks pumpable is generally sufficient evidence that the bet is losing, and the few people who still bet do so due to extraneous beliefs (e.g. a belief they are slightly psychic or can otherwise influence the chances; one can imagine a quantum and anthropic reasoning—confused person believe that by expecting very hard the future where he wins or committing to spending more time sleeping if he loses he can affect his subjective probability. One could also deduce the workings of PRNG in the slot machine, and then win, or lose if they’re wrong about the PRNG. One could believe their subconscious can deduce PRNG, then be unlucky to confirm this at some confidence level).