I wonder. Perhaps that 98% of people are theists is better evidence that theism is useful than that it’s correct. In fact, I think ihe 98%, or even an 80% figure, is pretty damn strong evidence that theism is useful; i.e. instrumentally rational. It’s basic microeconomics: if people didn’t derive value from religion, they’d stop doing it. To cite just one example, lukeprog has written previously about joining Scientology because they had best Toastmasters group. There are many other benefits to be had by professing theism.
However I’m not sure that this strong majority belief is particularly strong evidence that theism is correct, or epistemically rational. In particular if it were epistemically rational, I’d expect religions would be more similar than they are. To say that 98% of people believe in God, requires that one accept Allah, the Holy Trinity, and Hanuman as instances of “God”. However, adherents of various religions routinely claim that others are not worshipping God at all (though admittedly this is less common than it used to be). Is there some common core nature of “God” that most theists believe in? Possibly, but it’s a lot hazier. I’ve even heard some professed “theists” define God in such a way that it’s no more than the physical universe, or even one small group of actual, currently living, not-believed-to-be-supernatural people. (This happens on occasion in Alcoholics Anonymous, for members who don’t like accepting the “Higher Power”.)
At the least, majority beliefs and practice are stronger evidence of instrumental rationality than epistemic rationality.
Are there other cases where we have evidence that epistemic and instrumental rationality diverge? Perhaps the various instances of Illusory Superiority; for instance where the vast majority of people think they’re an above average driver or the Dunning-Krueger effect. Such beliefs may persist in the face of reality because they’re useful to people who hold these beliefs.
I don’t think it is so much that it suggests Theism is useful—rather that Theism is a concept which tends to propagate itself effectively, of which usefulness is one example. Effectively brainwashing participants at an early age is another. There almost certainly several factors, only some of which are good.
I wonder. Perhaps that 98% of people are theists is better evidence that theism is useful than that it’s correct. In fact, I think ihe 98%, or even an 80% figure, is pretty damn strong evidence that theism is useful; i.e. instrumentally rational. It’s basic microeconomics: if people didn’t derive value from religion, they’d stop doing it. To cite just one example, lukeprog has written previously about joining Scientology because they had best Toastmasters group. There are many other benefits to be had by professing theism.
However I’m not sure that this strong majority belief is particularly strong evidence that theism is correct, or epistemically rational. In particular if it were epistemically rational, I’d expect religions would be more similar than they are. To say that 98% of people believe in God, requires that one accept Allah, the Holy Trinity, and Hanuman as instances of “God”. However, adherents of various religions routinely claim that others are not worshipping God at all (though admittedly this is less common than it used to be). Is there some common core nature of “God” that most theists believe in? Possibly, but it’s a lot hazier. I’ve even heard some professed “theists” define God in such a way that it’s no more than the physical universe, or even one small group of actual, currently living, not-believed-to-be-supernatural people. (This happens on occasion in Alcoholics Anonymous, for members who don’t like accepting the “Higher Power”.)
At the least, majority beliefs and practice are stronger evidence of instrumental rationality than epistemic rationality.
Are there other cases where we have evidence that epistemic and instrumental rationality diverge? Perhaps the various instances of Illusory Superiority; for instance where the vast majority of people think they’re an above average driver or the Dunning-Krueger effect. Such beliefs may persist in the face of reality because they’re useful to people who hold these beliefs.
I don’t think it is so much that it suggests Theism is useful—rather that Theism is a concept which tends to propagate itself effectively, of which usefulness is one example. Effectively brainwashing participants at an early age is another. There almost certainly several factors, only some of which are good.