Suppose I’m ~100% confident that, while we sleep tonight, someone will paint a blue dot on either my forehead or my husband’s but not both. In that case, I am ~50% confident that I will see a blue dot, I am ~100% confident that one of us will see a blue dot, I am ~100% confident that one of us will not see a blue dot.
If someone said that seeing a blue dot and not-seeing a blue dot are symmetrical, so assigning ~100% confidence to “one of us will see a blue dot” means assigning ~0% to “one of us will not see a blue dot”, I would reply that they are deeply confused. The noun phrase “one of us” simply doesn’t behave that way.
In the scenario you describe, the noun phrase “I” doesn’t behave that way either.
I’m ~100% confident that I will experience X, and I’m ~100% confident that I will not experience X.
In your example, you anticipate your own experiences, but not your husband’s experiences. I don’t see how this is analogous to a case of cloning, where you equally anticipate both.
If someone said that seeing a blue dot and not-seeing a blue dot are symmetrical, so assigning ~100% confidence to “one of us will see a blue dot” means assigning ~0% to “one of us will not see a blue dot”, I would reply that they are deeply confused.
I’m not saying that “[exactly] one of us will see a blue dot” and “[neither] one of us will not see a blue dot” are symmetrical; that would be wrong. What I was saying was that “I will see a blue dot” and “I will not see a blue dot” are symmetrical.
I’m ~100% confident that I will experience X, and I’m ~100% confident that I will not experience X.
All the terminologies that have been proposed here—by me, and you, and FeepingCreature—are just disagreeing over names, not real-world predictions.
I think the quoted statement is at the very least misleading because it’s semantically different from other grammatically similar constructions. Normally you can’t say “I am ~1 confident that [Y] and also ~1 confident that [~Y]”. So “I” isn’t behaving like an ordinary object. That’s why I think it’s better to be explicit and not talk about “I expect” at all in the presence of clones.
My comment about “symmetrical” was intended to mean the same thing: that when I read the statement “expect X with 100% probability”, I normally parse it as equivalent to “expect ~X with 0% probability”, which would be wrong here. And X and ~X are symmetrical by construction in the sense that every person, at every point in time, should expect X and ~X with the same probability (whether you call it “both 50%” like I do, or “both 100%” like FeepingCreature prefers), until of course a person actually observes either X or ~X.
In your example, you anticipate your own experiences, but not your husband’s experiences. I don’t see how this is analogous to a case of cloning, where you equally anticipate both.
In my example, my husband and I are two people, anticipating the experience of two people. In your example, I am one person, anticipating the experience of two people. It seems to me that what my husband and I anticipate in my example is analogous to what I anticipate in your example.
But, regardless, I agree that we’re just disagreeing about names, and if you prefer the approach of not talking about “I expect” in such cases, that’s OK with me.
Suppose I’m ~100% confident that, while we sleep tonight, someone will paint a blue dot on either my forehead or my husband’s but not both. In that case, I am ~50% confident that I will see a blue dot, I am ~100% confident that one of us will see a blue dot, I am ~100% confident that one of us will not see a blue dot.
If someone said that seeing a blue dot and not-seeing a blue dot are symmetrical, so assigning ~100% confidence to “one of us will see a blue dot” means assigning ~0% to “one of us will not see a blue dot”, I would reply that they are deeply confused. The noun phrase “one of us” simply doesn’t behave that way.
In the scenario you describe, the noun phrase “I” doesn’t behave that way either.
I’m ~100% confident that I will experience X, and I’m ~100% confident that I will not experience X.
I really find that subscripts help here.
In your example, you anticipate your own experiences, but not your husband’s experiences. I don’t see how this is analogous to a case of cloning, where you equally anticipate both.
I’m not saying that “[exactly] one of us will see a blue dot” and “[neither] one of us will not see a blue dot” are symmetrical; that would be wrong. What I was saying was that “I will see a blue dot” and “I will not see a blue dot” are symmetrical.
All the terminologies that have been proposed here—by me, and you, and FeepingCreature—are just disagreeing over names, not real-world predictions.
I think the quoted statement is at the very least misleading because it’s semantically different from other grammatically similar constructions. Normally you can’t say “I am ~1 confident that [Y] and also ~1 confident that [~Y]”. So “I” isn’t behaving like an ordinary object. That’s why I think it’s better to be explicit and not talk about “I expect” at all in the presence of clones.
My comment about “symmetrical” was intended to mean the same thing: that when I read the statement “expect X with 100% probability”, I normally parse it as equivalent to “expect ~X with 0% probability”, which would be wrong here. And X and ~X are symmetrical by construction in the sense that every person, at every point in time, should expect X and ~X with the same probability (whether you call it “both 50%” like I do, or “both 100%” like FeepingCreature prefers), until of course a person actually observes either X or ~X.
In my example, my husband and I are two people, anticipating the experience of two people. In your example, I am one person, anticipating the experience of two people. It seems to me that what my husband and I anticipate in my example is analogous to what I anticipate in your example.
But, regardless, I agree that we’re just disagreeing about names, and if you prefer the approach of not talking about “I expect” in such cases, that’s OK with me.