I like the idea of this thread, I hope lots of people add their own observations and ideas, here are mine.
Most importantly: economic winter is coming. I don’t know the exact form it will take, but it is not going to be pleasant, especially for the unprepared. There will probably be inflation, tax hikes, service reductions, and high unemployment.
To prepare for inflation, you should buy hard assets such as real estate or stocks. I’ve been thinking about buying land, which seems like a good way to store value without high maintenance costs (compared to buildings).
High taxes are going to dampen economic activity of all types. This means people should move away from the “trade time for money, then trade money for utility” strategy. Instead you should figure out ways to exchange time directly for utility. There are lots of ways to do this.
Traditionally, most men follow a career trajectory that involves continuous, full-time employment over the course of several decades. This traditional trajectory is paired with the traditional family model where the husband is the breadwinner and the wife takes care of the kids. The traditional career might still make sense if you are going to have a traditional family, but otherwise it is probably very suboptimal: you are working more hours and paying more taxes for a minimal increase in income that you won’t even have time to enjoy. You are probably also going to end up picking up the slack for your coworkers who have to spend lots of time on their family responsibilities. I get the sense that many LWers are following the traditional career model but are not planning to follow the family model.
Graying populations in the First World as well as places like China. Too little replacement population produced or imported to offset this. Low productivity and higher levels of social dysfunction among the imported replacement population.
I feel like I see warning signs of incipient economic decline every time I read a news article. Here are some random example titles, you can find them with a Google search:
“Why air travel has become so expensive, annoying, and cramped”
“Spain Recoils as Its Hungry Forage Trash Bins for a Next Meal”
“A Part-Time Life, as Hours Shrink and Shift”
“‘Fiscal cliff’ already hampering U.S. economy, report says”
If the world were improving, what ratio of “good news” to “bad news” articles would you expect to see — given the incentives on journalists, news publishers, and news readers? If the world were worsening, what ratio would you expect to see?
There was lots of good economic news in the late 90s.
The media probably has the ability to distort our perception of certain things, like the risk of terrorism or serial murder. But trends like unemployment, tax increases, the fiscal cliff and the EU crisis seem hard to distort.
I like the idea of this thread, I hope lots of people add their own observations and ideas, here are mine.
Most importantly: economic winter is coming. I don’t know the exact form it will take, but it is not going to be pleasant, especially for the unprepared. There will probably be inflation, tax hikes, service reductions, and high unemployment.
To prepare for inflation, you should buy hard assets such as real estate or stocks. I’ve been thinking about buying land, which seems like a good way to store value without high maintenance costs (compared to buildings).
High taxes are going to dampen economic activity of all types. This means people should move away from the “trade time for money, then trade money for utility” strategy. Instead you should figure out ways to exchange time directly for utility. There are lots of ways to do this.
Traditionally, most men follow a career trajectory that involves continuous, full-time employment over the course of several decades. This traditional trajectory is paired with the traditional family model where the husband is the breadwinner and the wife takes care of the kids. The traditional career might still make sense if you are going to have a traditional family, but otherwise it is probably very suboptimal: you are working more hours and paying more taxes for a minimal increase in income that you won’t even have time to enjoy. You are probably also going to end up picking up the slack for your coworkers who have to spend lots of time on their family responsibilities. I get the sense that many LWers are following the traditional career model but are not planning to follow the family model.
Any substantiation for this “economic winter” gossip?
Graying populations in the First World as well as places like China. Too little replacement population produced or imported to offset this. Low productivity and higher levels of social dysfunction among the imported replacement population.
I feel like I see warning signs of incipient economic decline every time I read a news article. Here are some random example titles, you can find them with a Google search:
“Why air travel has become so expensive, annoying, and cramped”
“Spain Recoils as Its Hungry Forage Trash Bins for a Next Meal”
“A Part-Time Life, as Hours Shrink and Shift”
“‘Fiscal cliff’ already hampering U.S. economy, report says”
If the world were improving, what ratio of “good news” to “bad news” articles would you expect to see — given the incentives on journalists, news publishers, and news readers? If the world were worsening, what ratio would you expect to see?
There was lots of good economic news in the late 90s.
The media probably has the ability to distort our perception of certain things, like the risk of terrorism or serial murder. But trends like unemployment, tax increases, the fiscal cliff and the EU crisis seem hard to distort.