On the process level: I would offer a bit of unsolicited advice about the method you used to generate reasons for pessimism. You (and others), might try it in future.
First of all, I strongly applaud the step of taking out a physical clock/ timer and making a solid attempt at answering the question for yourself. Virtue points (and karma) awarded!
However, when I read your list, it’s blatantly one-sided. You’re only trying to generate reasons for pessimism not reasons for optimism. This is not as bad as writing the bottom line, but generating arguments for only one side of a question biases your search.
Given this, one thing that I might do is first, spend 5 minutes generating the best arguments for (or concrete scenarios which inspire) pessimism about impact measures, then shift my mental orientation and spend 5 minutes generating arguments for (or concrete scenarios in which) impact measures seem promising.
But I wouldn’t stop there. I would then spend 5 minutes (or as long as I need), looking over the first list and trying to generate counterarguments: reasons why the world probably isn’t that way. Once I had done that, I would look over my new list of counter arguments, and try to generate counter-counterarguments, iterating until I either get stuck, or reach a sort of equilibrium where the arguments I’ve made are as strong as I can see how to make.
Then I would go back to my second original list (the one with reasons for optimism) and do the same back and forth, generating counterarguments and counter-counterarguments, until I get stuck or reach equilibrium on that side.
At that point, I should have two lists of the strongest reasons I can muster, arguments in favor of pessimism and arguments in favor of optimism, both of which have been stress-tested by my own skepticism. I’d then compare both lists, and if any of the arguments invalidates or weakens another, I adjust them accordingly (there might be a few more rounds of back and forth).
At this point, I’ve really thoroughly considered the issue. Obviously this doesn’t mean that I’ve gotten the right answer, or that I’ve thought of everything. But it dose mean that for all practical purposes, I’ve exhausted the low hanging fruit of everything I can think of.
To recap...
Steps:
0. Take a binary question.
1. Make the best case I can for one answer, giving what ever arguments, or ways the world would have to be, that support that outcome.
2. Similarly make the best case I can for the other answer.
3. Take the reasoning for my first answer generate counterarguments. Generate responses to those counterarguments. Continue Iterate until you reach equilibrium.
4. Do the same to the reasoning for your second answer
5. Compare your final arguments on both sides of the question, adjusting as necessary.
(This procedure is inspired by a technique that I originally learned from Leverage Research / Paradigm Academy. By their terminology, this procedure is called (the weak form of) Pyrrhonian skepticism, after the Greek philosopher Pyrrho (who insisted that knowledge was impossible, because there were always arguments on both sides of a question). I’ve also heard it referred to, more generally, as “alternate stories”.)
Of course, this takes more time to do, and that time cost may or may not be worth it to you. Furthermore, there are certainly pieces of your context or thinking process that I’m missing. Maybe you, in fact, did part of this process. But this is an extended method to consider.
Not really. Just that when I look that the text I wrote, now, it seems a little hacky / not quite expressing the true spirit of the mental motions that seem useful to me.
It might still be a good procedure for bootstrapping into the right mental motions though? I’ve haven’t done any testing on this one, so I don’t know.
I believe the strong form is generating a counter argument for any proposition, and then concluding that all propositions are equally likely and therefore that knowledge is impossible.
The main principle of Pyrrho’s thought is expressed by the word acatalepsia, which connotes the ability to withhold assent from doctrines regarding the truth of things in their own nature; against every statement its contradiction may be advanced with equal justification.
Ah, ok. I note that it may have been intended more as a meditative practice, since the goal appears to have been reaching a state of bliss, the epistemic practice being a means to that end. Practicing doubting everything could be an interesting meditation (though it could perhaps be dangerous).
On the process level: I would offer a bit of unsolicited advice about the method you used to generate reasons for pessimism. You (and others), might try it in future.
First of all, I strongly applaud the step of taking out a physical clock/ timer and making a solid attempt at answering the question for yourself. Virtue points (and karma) awarded!
However, when I read your list, it’s blatantly one-sided. You’re only trying to generate reasons for pessimism not reasons for optimism. This is not as bad as writing the bottom line, but generating arguments for only one side of a question biases your search.
Given this, one thing that I might do is first, spend 5 minutes generating the best arguments for (or concrete scenarios which inspire) pessimism about impact measures, then shift my mental orientation and spend 5 minutes generating arguments for (or concrete scenarios in which) impact measures seem promising.
But I wouldn’t stop there. I would then spend 5 minutes (or as long as I need), looking over the first list and trying to generate counterarguments: reasons why the world probably isn’t that way. Once I had done that, I would look over my new list of counter arguments, and try to generate counter-counterarguments, iterating until I either get stuck, or reach a sort of equilibrium where the arguments I’ve made are as strong as I can see how to make.
Then I would go back to my second original list (the one with reasons for optimism) and do the same back and forth, generating counterarguments and counter-counterarguments, until I get stuck or reach equilibrium on that side.
At that point, I should have two lists of the strongest reasons I can muster, arguments in favor of pessimism and arguments in favor of optimism, both of which have been stress-tested by my own skepticism. I’d then compare both lists, and if any of the arguments invalidates or weakens another, I adjust them accordingly (there might be a few more rounds of back and forth).
At this point, I’ve really thoroughly considered the issue. Obviously this doesn’t mean that I’ve gotten the right answer, or that I’ve thought of everything. But it dose mean that for all practical purposes, I’ve exhausted the low hanging fruit of everything I can think of.
To recap...
Steps:
(This procedure is inspired by a technique that I originally learned from Leverage Research / Paradigm Academy. By their terminology, this procedure is called (the weak form of) Pyrrhonian skepticism, after the Greek philosopher Pyrrho (who insisted that knowledge was impossible, because there were always arguments on both sides of a question). I’ve also heard it referred to, more generally, as “alternate stories”.)
Of course, this takes more time to do, and that time cost may or may not be worth it to you. Furthermore, there are certainly pieces of your context or thinking process that I’m missing. Maybe you, in fact, did part of this process. But this is an extended method to consider.
I no longer fully endorse this comment, though I recommend this procedure to anyone who think it sounds interesting.
Is there a short explanation why you no longer fully endorse?
Not really. Just that when I look that the text I wrote, now, it seems a little hacky / not quite expressing the true spirit of the mental motions that seem useful to me.
It might still be a good procedure for bootstrapping into the right mental motions though? I’ve haven’t done any testing on this one, so I don’t know.
What’s the strong form?
I believe the strong form is generating a counter argument for any proposition, and then concluding that all propositions are equally likely and therefore that knowledge is impossible.
From wikipedia:
I don’t recommend the strong form.
Ah, ok. I note that it may have been intended more as a meditative practice, since the goal appears to have been reaching a state of bliss, the epistemic practice being a means to that end. Practicing doubting everything could be an interesting meditation (though it could perhaps be dangerous).