Pushing for more democratic governments in states like Russia and China might also decrease the chances of nuclear war, etc.
Most Chinese people I talked to really disliked Japan, and seemed in favour of China invading Taiwan to “get it back”. And that’s from a sample that was more educated and western-friendly than the general population. I’m really not sure giving everybody the vote would really decrease the chances of nuclear war. It’s not as if democratic elections in Iran, and Egypt (and maybe Libya?) were making the countries more stable.
if the Chinese government decided to stop helping North Korea, that might cause the country to “implode”, which feels like a good thing from an x-risk reduction standpoint.
Sure, a civil war in a highly militarized country that has The Bomb, what could go wrong?
Sure, a civil war in a highly militarized country that has The Bomb, what could go wrong?
Keep in mind that a potential consequence of letting NK run amok (remember that they have already bombed South Korean land and military, killing hundreds of South Koreans, over the last few years) is South Korea and Japan going nuclear. (Implausible? No: SK already had an active nuke program in the 1980s due to fear of NK.)
I agree that North Korea keeping up with it´s current behavior is dangerous, it´s just far from clear whether a regime collapse would make things better or worse. The safest solution might be something like a soft collapse where the Kims and their friends are offered a safe retirement in China en exchange for stepping down and letting South Korea and/or Soutj Korea take over (which is unlikely unless China is threatening military action otherwise—and since China does’t want Japan to go Nuclear, it has an incentive of finding some way to calm down the Kims).
Most Chinese people I talked to really disliked Japan, and seemed in favour of China invading Taiwan to “get it back”. And that’s from a sample that was more educated and western-friendly than the general population. I’m really not sure giving everybody the vote would really decrease the chances of nuclear war. It’s not as if democratic elections in Iran, and Egypt (and maybe Libya?) were making the countries more stable.
Sure, a civil war in a highly militarized country that has The Bomb, what could go wrong?
Keep in mind that a potential consequence of letting NK run amok (remember that they have already bombed South Korean land and military, killing hundreds of South Koreans, over the last few years) is South Korea and Japan going nuclear. (Implausible? No: SK already had an active nuke program in the 1980s due to fear of NK.)
I agree that North Korea keeping up with it´s current behavior is dangerous, it´s just far from clear whether a regime collapse would make things better or worse. The safest solution might be something like a soft collapse where the Kims and their friends are offered a safe retirement in China en exchange for stepping down and letting South Korea and/or Soutj Korea take over (which is unlikely unless China is threatening military action otherwise—and since China does’t want Japan to go Nuclear, it has an incentive of finding some way to calm down the Kims).