Regarding the first enigma, the expectation that what has worked in the past will work in the future is not a feature of the world, it’s a feature of our brains. That’s just how neural networks work, they predict the future based on past data.
Yeah right, we are definitely hard-wired to predict the future based on the past, and in general the phenomenon of predicting the future based on the past is a phenomenon of the mind, not of the world. But it sure would be nice to know whether that aspects of our minds is helping us to see things clearly or not. For me personally, I found it very difficult to get to work with full conviction without spending some real time investigating this.
Another way to say this is that we are born hard-wired to do all kinds of things, and we can look at our various hard-wirings and reflect on whether they are helping us to see things clearly and decide what to do about them. Now you might say that neural networks predict the future based on the past in a way that is a level more ingrained than any one particular heuristic or bias. But to me that just makes it all the more pressing to investigate whether this deep aspect of our brains is helping or hurting our capacity to see things clearly. I just found that I could put this question aside for only so long.
Yeah right, we are definitely hard-wired to predict the future based on the past, and in general the phenomenon of predicting the future based on the past is a phenomenon of the mind, not of the world. But it sure would be nice to know whether that aspects of our minds is helping us to see things clearly or not. For me personally, I found it very difficult to get to work with full conviction without spending some real time investigating this.
Another way to say this is that we are born hard-wired to do all kinds of things, and we can look at our various hard-wirings and reflect on whether they are helping us to see things clearly and decide what to do about them. Now you might say that neural networks predict the future based on the past in a way that is a level more ingrained than any one particular heuristic or bias. But to me that just makes it all the more pressing to investigate whether this deep aspect of our brains is helping or hurting our capacity to see things clearly. I just found that I could put this question aside for only so long.