Unaligned: If you’re going to die soon, you probably want to spend your money soon.
Aligned: If you’re going to be rich soon, you probably don’t want to save your money.
Both scenarios depend upon the time-discounted value of money to be lower after AGI. I guess the underlying assumptions are that the value derived from aligned AGI will be distributed without respect to capital, and that capital is relatively worthless in the face of unaligned AGI.
Ah, so the mechanism is a reduction in present value of money, not an increase in future value (though it implies an increase from the reduced current value). That does fit nicely with my general finance-world outlook, which is “we’re not as rich as we think”, but I’m not sure I’m sold on the rebound part of the story.
It is explained in the first section of the referenced post: AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years—EA Forum (effectivealtruism.org)
Unaligned: If you’re going to die soon, you probably want to spend your money soon.
Aligned: If you’re going to be rich soon, you probably don’t want to save your money.
Both scenarios depend upon the time-discounted value of money to be lower after AGI. I guess the underlying assumptions are that the value derived from aligned AGI will be distributed without respect to capital, and that capital is relatively worthless in the face of unaligned AGI.
Ah, so the mechanism is a reduction in present value of money, not an increase in future value (though it implies an increase from the reduced current value). That does fit nicely with my general finance-world outlook, which is “we’re not as rich as we think”, but I’m not sure I’m sold on the rebound part of the story.