Suppose I have a radish, a carrot, and a prune. I eat the carrot. Someone asks me why. I respond that I ate the carrot because I like sweet foods, and the carrot was sweeter than the radish. They might reasonably be skeptical of this explanation, since if they’d tried to predict my behavior using the implied decision rule, they’d have predicted that I’d eat the prune rather than the carrot.
I’m confused how you distinguish between predicting vs clever arguing if all our data is in the past?
Suppose I have a radish, a carrot, and a prune. I eat the carrot. Someone asks me why. I respond that I ate the carrot because I like sweet foods, and the carrot was sweeter than the radish. They might reasonably be skeptical of this explanation, since if they’d tried to predict my behavior using the implied decision rule, they’d have predicted that I’d eat the prune rather than the carrot.