On Less Wrong in particular, I would assign a high likelihood to various permutations of “gothgirl” being ironic, rather than sincere self expression of the user.
Do you really think 1/3rd of users named gothgirl* would be male?
That isn’t the relevant number. The likelihood ratio is P(named gothgirl | female) / P(named gothgirl | male), not P(female | named gothgirl) / P(male | named gothgirl).
Do you really think 1/3rd of users named gothgirl* would be male? I’d guess something like 1-10%, compared with 1-3% transsexualism on LW: http://lesswrong.com/lw/fp5/2012_survey_results/
On Less Wrong in particular, I would assign a high likelihood to various permutations of “gothgirl” being ironic, rather than sincere self expression of the user.
Yeah, sure. This is the internet. (Acknowledged that the base rate of transsexualism on LW is higher than I had expected.)
That isn’t the relevant number. The likelihood ratio is P(named gothgirl | female) / P(named gothgirl | male), not P(female | named gothgirl) / P(male | named gothgirl).