If I’m currently willing to pay $100k to avoid a 1% chance of dying, that doesn’t mean that a 100x increase in my estimate of life expectancy will convince me to pay $100k to avoid a 0.01% chance of dying—that change might bankrupt me.
I’m not following how this example is influenced by your wealth. In both scenarios, you are paying $100k. If it was $100k to avoid a 1% chance vs a $1k to avoid a 0.01% chance, then I see how wealth matters. If you have $105k in savings, paying $100k would bring you down to $5k in savings which is a big deal, whereas paying $1k would bring you down to $104k which isn’t too big a deal.
I think this is due to (something like) diminishing marginal utility. But even with that factored in, my sense is that the tremendous value of post-singularity life overwhelms it.
I expect there are a lot more ways to buy a 0.01% risk reduction for $100k.
Let me approach this a different way. Is there anything deterring you from valuing your life at $3^^^3? What behaviors would such a person have that differ from a person who values their life at $1 billion?
What behaviors would such a person have that differ from a person who values their life at $1 billion?
Driving, perhaps. I arrived at something like $2.50/mile at a $10B valuation of life. So for a $1B valuation, that’d be $0.25/mile, which seems reasonable to pay in various situations. But at a $3^^^3 valuation it would no longer be worth it.
Is there anything deterring you from valuing your life at $3^^^3?
With the estimates I made in this post, it doesn’t seem reasonable to value it at something crazily high like that.
I’m not following how this example is influenced by your wealth. In both scenarios, you are paying $100k. If it was $100k to avoid a 1% chance vs a $1k to avoid a 0.01% chance, then I see how wealth matters. If you have $105k in savings, paying $100k would bring you down to $5k in savings which is a big deal, whereas paying $1k would bring you down to $104k which isn’t too big a deal.
I think this is due to (something like) diminishing marginal utility. But even with that factored in, my sense is that the tremendous value of post-singularity life overwhelms it.
I expect there are a lot more ways to buy a 0.01% risk reduction for $100k.
Let me approach this a different way. Is there anything deterring you from valuing your life at $3^^^3? What behaviors would such a person have that differ from a person who values their life at $1 billion?
Driving, perhaps. I arrived at something like $2.50/mile at a $10B valuation of life. So for a $1B valuation, that’d be $0.25/mile, which seems reasonable to pay in various situations. But at a $3^^^3 valuation it would no longer be worth it.
With the estimates I made in this post, it doesn’t seem reasonable to value it at something crazily high like that.