If you make your decision about whether to open the second box contingent on some fact about the future, then the contents of the first box let you predict that fact in advance. e.g., If the New York Yankees win their baseball game today then I will open the second box after their game, and if they do not win then I will not open the second box. Then if I open the first box and see $100, I can bet a lot of money on the Yankees to win, and if I see $0 then I can bet against the Yankees winning. If Omega is less patient then you’ll need to pick something that resolves quicker.
! :::spoiler Doesn’t that run into the same issue as Harry in HPMoR with his experiment with time? Namely, that there are a lot of scenarios in which you never (get to) open the second box, easiest case: you died. But also probably any number of other results (it gets stolen, f.e.) :::
The spoiler tag only works for me if I type it, not if I copy-paste it.
In this scenario, Omega is described as predicting your actions and choosing how much money goes in the boxes, which is different from HPMOR where timelines settle into a self-consistent equilibrium in more complicated ways. And with this plan it should be straightforward for Omega to carry out its usual process, since you’re not trying to generate a contradiction or force events through a weird narrow path, you’re just entangling your box-opening decision with an observation about the world which you haven’t made yet, but which omniscient Omega should know. For Omega, this is no different than you deciding that your second-box-opening decision will be contingent on the results of yesterday’s Yankees game, which you haven’t heard yet but which you will look up on your phone after you open the first box.
Extra credit
If you make your decision about whether to open the second box contingent on some fact about the future, then the contents of the first box let you predict that fact in advance. e.g., If the New York Yankees win their baseball game today then I will open the second box after their game, and if they do not win then I will not open the second box. Then if I open the first box and see $100, I can bet a lot of money on the Yankees to win, and if I see $0 then I can bet against the Yankees winning. If Omega is less patient then you’ll need to pick something that resolves quicker.
Somehow neither spoiler is working...
The spoiler tag only works for me if I type it, not if I copy-paste it.
In this scenario, Omega is described as predicting your actions and choosing how much money goes in the boxes, which is different from HPMOR where timelines settle into a self-consistent equilibrium in more complicated ways. And with this plan it should be straightforward for Omega to carry out its usual process, since you’re not trying to generate a contradiction or force events through a weird narrow path, you’re just entangling your box-opening decision with an observation about the world which you haven’t made yet, but which omniscient Omega should know. For Omega, this is no different than you deciding that your second-box-opening decision will be contingent on the results of yesterday’s Yankees game, which you haven’t heard yet but which you will look up on your phone after you open the first box.
This only works if Omega is willing to simulate the Yankees game for you.