As far as I can see, the official view in QM is inherently “nonbayesian” in this sense. No hidden mechanism which would output the decay time of an uranium atom for example.
Indeed there is no hidden “time until I decay” number hidden inside each radioactive atom (based on some pseudo-random generator, or what have you), but how is it related to Bayes? And what do you mean by “official”?
I mean the *prevailing view among (quantum) physicists that:
“Indeed there is no hidden “time until I decay” number hidden inside each radioactive atom ”
You said it.
but how is it related to Bayes?
It is, while one thinks, that he must update on every evidence. You can’t update anything on a decay of the particular radioactive atom. Could be another one, but it just wasn’t and what is to update? Nothing, if that was a “truly random” event.
Either it wasn’t, either you have nothing to update based on this evidence.
This “view” has been experimentally tested in a simpler case of two-state systems as Bell’s inequality, though I do not remember, off-hand, any tests related to radioactive decay.
It is, while one thinks, that he must update on every evidence. You can’t update anything on a decay of the particular radioactive atom.
You can update your estimate of the element’s half-life, if nothing else.
Indeed there is no hidden “time until I decay” number hidden inside each radioactive atom (based on some pseudo-random generator, or what have you), but how is it related to Bayes? And what do you mean by “official”?
I mean the *prevailing view among (quantum) physicists that:
You said it.
It is, while one thinks, that he must update on every evidence. You can’t update anything on a decay of the particular radioactive atom. Could be another one, but it just wasn’t and what is to update? Nothing, if that was a “truly random” event.
Either it wasn’t, either you have nothing to update based on this evidence.
This “view” has been experimentally tested in a simpler case of two-state systems as Bell’s inequality, though I do not remember, off-hand, any tests related to radioactive decay.
You can update your estimate of the element’s half-life, if nothing else.
You can update the half-life from the TIME of the decay. But nothing from the fact that it was the atom number 2 and not the number 1 or any other.
I know. That’s way I keep bringing up this “true random” case.
If I understand correctly, there is no physical difference between atom 2 and atom 1. There just is no fact of the matter to update on.
Say you have two diamonds, both marked with a million uranium 238 atoms.
You can measure in WHICH diamond the first decay will occur. An evidence you can’t use it for any update then.