“But wait – who’s to say that progress will remain “only” exponential? Might not progress exceed this rate, following an inverse polynomial curve (like gravity) or even an inverse exponential curve? I, for one, don’t see why it shouldn’t. If we consider specifically the means whereby the Singularity is most widely expected to occur, namely the development of computers with the capacity for recursive improvement of their own workings,4 I can see no argument why the rate at which such a computer would improve itself should not follow an inverse exponential curve, i.e. one in which the time taken to achieve a given degree of improvement takes time X, the time taken to repeat that degree of improvement is X/2, then X/4 and so on.”
He can’t see the argument? What sort of argument is that?!?
I will spell it out again: to build a fast computer you don’t just need to be able to perform computations quickly. You also need to be able to design and perform real-world experiments and tests. There is no Moore’s law for robotics—and while sensor and motor capabilities are improving, they are not doing so with the same doubling time as exists for computers. Consequently, progress in these fields (and thus overall progress) is correspondingly slower.
To quote from http://www.sens.org/files/sens/FHTI07-deGrey.pdf:
“But wait – who’s to say that progress will remain “only” exponential? Might not progress exceed this rate, following an inverse polynomial curve (like gravity) or even an inverse exponential curve? I, for one, don’t see why it shouldn’t. If we consider specifically the means whereby the Singularity is most widely expected to occur, namely the development of computers with the capacity for recursive improvement of their own workings,4 I can see no argument why the rate at which such a computer would improve itself should not follow an inverse exponential curve, i.e. one in which the time taken to achieve a given degree of improvement takes time X, the time taken to repeat that degree of improvement is X/2, then X/4 and so on.”
He can’t see the argument? What sort of argument is that?!?
I will spell it out again: to build a fast computer you don’t just need to be able to perform computations quickly. You also need to be able to design and perform real-world experiments and tests. There is no Moore’s law for robotics—and while sensor and motor capabilities are improving, they are not doing so with the same doubling time as exists for computers. Consequently, progress in these fields (and thus overall progress) is correspondingly slower.