“Slow vs. fast takeoff” is a false dichotomy. At least, the way that the distinction is being used rhetorically, in the present moment, implies that there are two possible worlds, one where AI develops slowly and steadily, and one where nothing much visibly happens and then suddenly, FOOM.
That’s not how any of this works. It’s permitted by reality that everything looks like a “slow takeoff” until some unknown capabilities threshold is reached, and then suddenly FOOM.
The meaningful distinction has slow takeoff with very impactful AI before FOOM, and fast takeoff with low AI impact before FOOM. The problem with the distinction is that a “theory of fast takeoff” is usually actually a theory of FOOM, and doesn’t say slow takeoff is unlikely, if it happens for other reasons. It doesn’t talk about what happens pre-FOOM, unlike a theory of slow takeoff, which does.
So the issue is that there aren’t actual theories of fast takeoff, instead there are takeoff-agnostic theories of FOOM being called “theories of fast takeoff”, which they are not. Things that can FOOM with fast takeoff, can also FOOM with slow takeoff, if the thing taking off slowly and having large impact pre-FOOM is not the thing that FOOMs.
“Slow vs. fast takeoff” is a false dichotomy. At least, the way that the distinction is being used rhetorically, in the present moment, implies that there are two possible worlds, one where AI develops slowly and steadily, and one where nothing much visibly happens and then suddenly, FOOM.
That’s not how any of this works. It’s permitted by reality that everything looks like a “slow takeoff” until some unknown capabilities threshold is reached, and then suddenly FOOM.
The meaningful distinction has slow takeoff with very impactful AI before FOOM, and fast takeoff with low AI impact before FOOM. The problem with the distinction is that a “theory of fast takeoff” is usually actually a theory of FOOM, and doesn’t say slow takeoff is unlikely, if it happens for other reasons. It doesn’t talk about what happens pre-FOOM, unlike a theory of slow takeoff, which does.
So the issue is that there aren’t actual theories of fast takeoff, instead there are takeoff-agnostic theories of FOOM being called “theories of fast takeoff”, which they are not. Things that can FOOM with fast takeoff, can also FOOM with slow takeoff, if the thing taking off slowly and having large impact pre-FOOM is not the thing that FOOMs.