I agree that standardized expressions for levels of confidence are desirable. However, anything that needs explanation before use is unlikely to catch on.
I suggest we try and make a habit of saying “I’d bet against that ”. Such as: “I’d bet $100 against $50 that Democrats will win the next US presidency.”
That quantifies confidence, gives others an opportunity to challenge the claim and is frankly more colorful than cryptic codes.
I think most debates that we have aren’t as easily verified as who wins the next US presidency. If you do make claims that are easily verified post them to predictionbook and link to the predictionbook entry.
I agree that standardized expressions for levels of confidence are desirable. However, anything that needs explanation before use is unlikely to catch on.
I suggest we try and make a habit of saying “I’d bet against that ”. Such as: “I’d bet $100 against $50 that Democrats will win the next US presidency.”
That quantifies confidence, gives others an opportunity to challenge the claim and is frankly more colorful than cryptic codes.
I think most debates that we have aren’t as easily verified as who wins the next US presidency. If you do make claims that are easily verified post them to predictionbook and link to the predictionbook entry.