Minor typos: “are viable cites of collective action in which toe people could organize to overthrow the regime ”, “the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). despite a well-funded patronage systme”, “the same people who murdered their friends get to keep a their stolen gold, jade and oil”
I especially liked your game-theoretic analysis to explain why the Tatmadaw decided to launch a coup. It’s quite refreshing to see it laid out clearly like that (without extra padding some news sites usually do). I look forward to reading your future installments.
Something interesting I noted: you list a 55% chance Min Aung Hlaing becomes head of state and 35% chance that the NLD recovers power. There is 10% of the probability space remaining. What other unlikely options could there be, in your opinion?
Minor typos: “are viable cites of collective action in which toe people could organize to overthrow the regime ”, “the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). despite a well-funded patronage systme”, “the same people who murdered their friends get to keep a their stolen gold, jade and oil”
I especially liked your game-theoretic analysis to explain why the Tatmadaw decided to launch a coup. It’s quite refreshing to see it laid out clearly like that (without extra padding some news sites usually do). I look forward to reading your future installments.
Something interesting I noted: you list a 55% chance Min Aung Hlaing becomes head of state and 35% chance that the NLD recovers power. There is 10% of the probability space remaining. What other unlikely options could there be, in your opinion?
Thank you! More is coming :)
The most likely is a military challenger unseating Hlaing or the military’s own party overthrowing them.