People interested in malthusian theories focus on calories
Which is of course total nonsense, as number of calories consumer per capita varies extremely little over huge differences in GDP. some data
I’m sorry if I wasn’t clear, but I reject GDP for this purpose. I suspect that Braudel and the conventional wisdom about 1300 are like saying that people today are as kings, for they have the greatest musicians of the century at their beck and call on youtube. GDP tells how nice are the luxuries, but it doesn’t tell if someone is starving.
Malthusians claim that percent of income spent on food is a good inverse predictor of number of calories, that people eat few calories when they can’t afford more. GDP, whether in the 13th century or especially in the 20 century can mask this, because what can be bought with the remaining income is quite variable. Greg Clark claims that the poor in England in 1800 were getting 1500 calories per day, which is off the chart you link to.
I can’t find him giving calorie estimates for other years, but he and his predecessors Phelps-Brown-Hopkins and Steffens claim that English labor income peaked in 1450, that the black death raised wages in a malthusian manner, in contrast to the claims you quote. This could be special to England or could be a result of measuring wages in necessities (calories), or could be a result of malthusians putting a finger on the scales. (Clark is a malthusian. I don’t know about PB, H, or S.)
I can’t find him giving calorie estimates for other years, but he and his predecessors Phelps-Brown-Hopkins and Steffens claim that English labor income peaked in 1450, that the black death raised wages in a malthusian manner, in contrast to the claims you quote.
How is it measured? If you use nominal wages, you will see this effect, Malthusian or not, because amount of metal money per capita is inversely proportional to population. You need some sort of GDP estimates to adequately measure wages.
Malthusians claim that percent of income spent on food
Do we at least have this data?
It isn’t a terribly useful indicator, as prices are by their nature marginal, and just recently wheat prices varied from 287.75 $/bu in February 2005 to 1280 $/bu in February 2008, 4.4:1. This doesn’t mean people got four times poorer just because food got four times more expensive.
But then, with economic history we rarely have the kind of data we want.
How is it measured? If you use nominal wages, you will see this effect, Malthusian or not, because amount of metal money per capita is inversely proportional to population. You need some sort of GDP estimates to adequately measure wages.
They use baskets of goods. But if the basket weights food heavily, it may see different effects than if it weights manufactured goods heavily. You can call it GDP, but 20th century GDP is definitely measuring the wrong thing. PPP deals with some of these issues, but for each purpose you need a different basket.
Malthusians claim that percent of income spent on food
Do we at least have this data?
This is Engel’s law. He had contemporary (19th century) cross-sectional data, not historical. I have heard people claim to have some historical data like this, but I haven’t run across it recently. Clark seems to claim to have better knowledge of the basket consumed than PHB, so he ought to be able to graph calories, but I haven’t seen him do it. Or rather, he claims to have better knowledge of meat consumed, so he should be able to graph protein, which is another part of Engel’s law. Protein consumption changed much more across the 20th century than calories, but I’d be nervous about cross-cultural comparisons.
No, we shouldn’t say that the people became 4 times poorer from 2005 to 2008, but we should say that poor people who use wheat as a staple and didn’t have (flexible) subsidies did become poorer, while I doubt that’s visible in the GDP per capita. Just saying that they became poorer, without quantifying it, is a crude measure, but we’re only interested in the sign of the change: did the Black Death make people poorer or richer? It may have had opposite effects on the rich and the poor because they consumed different baskets of goods.
I’m sorry if I wasn’t clear, but I reject GDP for this purpose. I suspect that Braudel and the conventional wisdom about 1300 are like saying that people today are as kings, for they have the greatest musicians of the century at their beck and call on youtube. GDP tells how nice are the luxuries, but it doesn’t tell if someone is starving.
Malthusians claim that percent of income spent on food is a good inverse predictor of number of calories, that people eat few calories when they can’t afford more. GDP, whether in the 13th century or especially in the 20 century can mask this, because what can be bought with the remaining income is quite variable. Greg Clark claims that the poor in England in 1800 were getting 1500 calories per day, which is off the chart you link to.
I can’t find him giving calorie estimates for other years, but he and his predecessors Phelps-Brown-Hopkins and Steffens claim that English labor income peaked in 1450, that the black death raised wages in a malthusian manner, in contrast to the claims you quote. This could be special to England or could be a result of measuring wages in necessities (calories), or could be a result of malthusians putting a finger on the scales. (Clark is a malthusian. I don’t know about PB, H, or S.)
How is it measured? If you use nominal wages, you will see this effect, Malthusian or not, because amount of metal money per capita is inversely proportional to population. You need some sort of GDP estimates to adequately measure wages.
Do we at least have this data?
It isn’t a terribly useful indicator, as prices are by their nature marginal, and just recently wheat prices varied from 287.75 $/bu in February 2005 to 1280 $/bu in February 2008, 4.4:1. This doesn’t mean people got four times poorer just because food got four times more expensive.
But then, with economic history we rarely have the kind of data we want.
They use baskets of goods. But if the basket weights food heavily, it may see different effects than if it weights manufactured goods heavily. You can call it GDP, but 20th century GDP is definitely measuring the wrong thing. PPP deals with some of these issues, but for each purpose you need a different basket.
This is Engel’s law. He had contemporary (19th century) cross-sectional data, not historical. I have heard people claim to have some historical data like this, but I haven’t run across it recently. Clark seems to claim to have better knowledge of the basket consumed than PHB, so he ought to be able to graph calories, but I haven’t seen him do it. Or rather, he claims to have better knowledge of meat consumed, so he should be able to graph protein, which is another part of Engel’s law. Protein consumption changed much more across the 20th century than calories, but I’d be nervous about cross-cultural comparisons.
No, we shouldn’t say that the people became 4 times poorer from 2005 to 2008, but we should say that poor people who use wheat as a staple and didn’t have (flexible) subsidies did become poorer, while I doubt that’s visible in the GDP per capita. Just saying that they became poorer, without quantifying it, is a crude measure, but we’re only interested in the sign of the change: did the Black Death make people poorer or richer? It may have had opposite effects on the rich and the poor because they consumed different baskets of goods.