My guess is that Robin is talking about how the median entity, regardless of how much nonsentient capital it has for itself, will spend almost all the proceeds of that capital on reproduction, and very little on plasma TVs.
Robin’s recent post and discussion there made me think of another way that the median entity might spend a lot on the equivalent of plasma TVs. Suppose a high capital to labor ratio is required to optimize military power in the far future. Then once all available resources are claimed by someone, and the optimal capital/labor mix is reached, nations should limit reproduction to avoid declining in power. During peacetime, the high capital levels could allow a high per capita production of consumer goods. (I guess this is just an elaboration of my original argument, which I still don’t quite understand why Robin disagrees with.)
One plausible way this could come about is one of the scenarios Carl Shulman described, namely that most work will be most efficiently performed by specialized AIs that we would not consider sentient.
But plasma TVs, besides being a luxury, are also a form of signaling that helps attracting a mate, and increases social status in general (which improves reproduction). Maybe the right argument is not “non-human capital” but “signaling”?
I think spending 99% on signaling by definition (well, by most people’s definition) wouldn’t be a “subsistence lifestyle”, so perhaps a better phrase would be “equilibrium lifestyle”. But how sure are you that there isn’t a high-signaling equilibrium? Maybe not 99%, but say >50%?
My guess is that Robin is talking about how the median entity, regardless of how much nonsentient capital it has for itself, will spend almost all the proceeds of that capital on reproduction, and very little on plasma TVs.
Robin’s recent post and discussion there made me think of another way that the median entity might spend a lot on the equivalent of plasma TVs. Suppose a high capital to labor ratio is required to optimize military power in the far future. Then once all available resources are claimed by someone, and the optimal capital/labor mix is reached, nations should limit reproduction to avoid declining in power. During peacetime, the high capital levels could allow a high per capita production of consumer goods. (I guess this is just an elaboration of my original argument, which I still don’t quite understand why Robin disagrees with.)
One plausible way this could come about is one of the scenarios Carl Shulman described, namely that most work will be most efficiently performed by specialized AIs that we would not consider sentient.
But plasma TVs, besides being a luxury, are also a form of signaling that helps attracting a mate, and increases social status in general (which improves reproduction). Maybe the right argument is not “non-human capital” but “signaling”?
I expect some signaling would be part of a subsistence lifestyle. But I don’t expect 99% of spending to be on signaling.
I think spending 99% on signaling by definition (well, by most people’s definition) wouldn’t be a “subsistence lifestyle”, so perhaps a better phrase would be “equilibrium lifestyle”. But how sure are you that there isn’t a high-signaling equilibrium? Maybe not 99%, but say >50%?