Well, yes, if you start by writing on the bottom line the probability you want, and then fudge the individual events’ probabilities to get that desired outcome, you totally ruin the point of Fermi calculations. But I wouldn’t accuse anyone presenting a Fermi calculation of having done that unless there was some particular reason to suspect it in that case.
Well, yes, if you start by writing on the bottom line the probability you want, and then fudge the individual events’ probabilities to get that desired outcome, you totally ruin the point of Fermi calculations. But I wouldn’t accuse anyone presenting a Fermi calculation of having done that unless there was some particular reason to suspect it in that case.