First of all, that is a completely separate argument that does not rescue or excuse your previous invalid argument.
What I was trying to say is that getting any of the factors exponentially wrong greatly affects the outcome and that this can easily occur on account of a hidden conjunction.
Secondly, absent evidence that the overwhelming majority of Fermi calculations have this mistake, you should be pointing to a specific event in a specific Fermi calculation that is assigned too high a probability because it is implicitly a conjunction, not attempting a fully general counterargument against all Fermi calculations.
I was not attempting to give incontrovertible argument; rather I was raising some points for consideration. Nor was I attempting giving a fully general counterargument against all Fermi calculations; as I said above
Note that I’m not casting doubt on the utility of Fermi calculations as a general matter
Most of the probabilities used in Fermi calculations about existential risk are unfalsifiable which makes it difficult to point to an indisputable example of the phenomenon that I have in mind.
Nor was I attempting giving a fully general counterargument against all Fermi calculations
You may not have been attempting to make a fully general counterargument, but you did in fact make an argument against Fermi calculations, without referring to any specific Fermi calculation, that fails to distinguish between good Fermi calculations and bad Fermi calculations.
What I was trying to say is that getting any of the factors exponentially wrong greatly affects the outcome and that this can easily occur on account of a hidden conjunction.
I was not attempting to give incontrovertible argument; rather I was raising some points for consideration. Nor was I attempting giving a fully general counterargument against all Fermi calculations; as I said above
Most of the probabilities used in Fermi calculations about existential risk are unfalsifiable which makes it difficult to point to an indisputable example of the phenomenon that I have in mind.
You may not have been attempting to make a fully general counterargument, but you did in fact make an argument against Fermi calculations, without referring to any specific Fermi calculation, that fails to distinguish between good Fermi calculations and bad Fermi calculations.