Here’s the curious thing: if you pick the morning bet, then almost surely there will be times in the morning when you would prefer to switch to the afternoon bet.
You either have a new interval, or new information suggesting the probability density for the interval has changed.
Conservation of Expected Evidence does not mean Ignorance of Observed Evidence.
This is just a restatement of the black swan problem, and it’s a non-issue. If evidence does not exist yet it does not exist yet. It doesn’t cast doubt on your methods of reasoning, nor does it allow you make a baseless guess of what might come in the future.
You either have a new interval, or new information suggesting the probability density for the interval has changed.
Conservation of Expected Evidence does not mean Ignorance of Observed Evidence.
This is just a restatement of the black swan problem, and it’s a non-issue. If evidence does not exist yet it does not exist yet. It doesn’t cast doubt on your methods of reasoning, nor does it allow you make a baseless guess of what might come in the future.