Overall I still think that you can’t get to >90% confidence of >0.9c colonization speed (our understanding of physics/cosmology just doesn’t seem high enough to get to those confidences), but I agree with you that my initial estimate was too pessimistic about fast colonization and it’s pretty unlikely that colonization is slow enough for this question to matter.
Overall I still think that you can’t get to >90% confidence of >0.9c colonization speed (our understanding of physics/cosmology just doesn’t seem high enough to get to those confidences), but I agree with you that my initial estimate was too pessimistic about fast colonization and it’s pretty unlikely that colonization is slow enough for this question to matter.