[sorry if this is a repost; my original attempt to post this was blocked as comment spam because it had too many links to other OB posts]
I’ve always hated that Dante quote. The hottest place in Hell is reserved for brutal dictators, mass murderers, torturers, and people who use flamethrowers on puppies—not for the Swiss.
I came to the exact opposite conclusion when pondering the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Most of the essays I’ve seen in newspapers and on bulletin boards are impassioned pleas to designate one side or the other as Evildoers and the other as the Brave Heroic Resistance by citing who stole whose land first, whose atrocities were slightly less provoked, which violations of which cease-fire were dastardly betrayals and which were necessary pre-emptive actions, et cetera.
Not only is this issue so open to bias that we have little hope of getting to the truth, but I doubt there’s much truth to be attained at all. Since “policy debates should not appear one-sided” and “our enemies are not innately evil”, it seems pretty likely that they’re two groups of people who both are doing what they honestly think is right and who both have some good points.
This isn’t an attempt to run away from the problem, it’s the first step toward solving the real problem. The real problem isn’t “who’s the hero and who’s the terrorist scumbag?” it’s “search solution-space for the solution that leads to the least suffering and the most peace and prosperity in the Middle East” There is a degree to which finding out who’s the evildoer is useful here so we can punish them as a deterrent, but it’s a pretty small degree, and the amount of energy people spend trying to determine it is completely out of proportion to the minimal gains it might produce.
And “how do we minimize suffering in the Middle East?” may be an easier question than “who’s to blame?” It’s about distributing land and resources to avoid people being starved or killed or oppressed, more a matter for economists and political scientists then for heated Internet debate. I’ve met conservatives who loathe the Palestinians and liberals who hate all Israelis who when asked supported exactly the same version of the two-state solution, but who’d never realized they agreed because they’d never gotten so far as “solution” before.
My defense of neutrality, then, would be something like this: human beings have the unfortunate tendency not to think of an issue as “finding the best solution in solution-space” but as “let’s make two opposing sides at the two extremes, who both loathe each other with the burning intensity of a thousand suns”. The issue then becomes “Which of these two sides is the Good and True and Beautiful, and which is Evil and Hates Our Freedom?” Thus the Democrats versus the Republicans or the Communists versus the Objectivists. I’d be terrified if any of them got one hundred percent control over policy-making. Thus, the Wise try to stay outside of these two opposing sides in order to seek the best policy solution in solution-space without being biased or distracted by the heroic us vs. them drama—and to ensure that both sides will take their proposed solution seriously without denouncing them as an other-side stooge.
A “neutral” of this sort may not care who started it, may not call one side “right” or “wrong”, may claim to be above the fray, may even come up with a solution that looks like a “compromise” to both sides, but isn’t abdicating judgment or responsibility.
Not that taking a side is never worth it. The Axis may have had one or two good points about the WWI reparations being unfair and such, but on the whole the balance of righteousness in WWII was so clearly on the Allies’ side that the most practical way to save the world was to give the Allies all the support you could. It’s always a trade-off between how ideal a solution is and how likely it is to be implemented.
“how do we minimize suffering in the Middle East?” may be an easier question than “who’s to blame?”
The quickest way to minimize suffering is to nuke the Middle East into a sea of glass with the nukes spaced such that every person is vaporized instantly without feeling a thing. As they feel nothing from their instant vaporization, they are no longer suffering and no longer are capable of suffering or causing suffering.
While that’s not strictly in the utility function, it’d be important to eliminate all things capable of A) suffering and B) traveling into the Middle East, or to eliminate the Middle East itself (physically or politically).
I think you are confused, this is the Solitudinem Party foreign policy, the Scorched Earth Party involves only the destruction of all non-Jews in the Middle East (facebook) and a lot of lead pipes. We of the Solitudinem Party do agree on some points with the Scorched Earthy Parties foreign policy but feel it doesn’t go far enough in ensuring an end to suffering and world peace. We take as our party motto and guiding principle this sound advice:
ubi solitudinem faciunt pacem appellant—Tacitus
It has a proud and honored history of effectively working. We feel we can more effectively implement that advice today leading to a perpetual world peace for at least the next few million years. It causes us deep physic pain to think that anyone (or anything) will ever experience the horrors of pain and suffering and our candidates promise to do everything in their power to eliminate these and all other social ills instantly.
Donations to our PAC are greatly appreciated and show your support for lasting world peace and a world free from all crime.
I’ve always hated that Dante quote. The hottest place in Hell is reserved for brutal dictators, mass murderers, torturers, and people who use flamethrowers on puppies—not for the Swiss.
I have become slightly involved in the Israeli-Palestinian activism sphere on campus. I tried to square the reasonable and obviously correct comment above with the reasonable and obviously correct position of the pro-Palestinian side that maintaining neutrality in the conflict is the same as supporting the status quo. In fact, most people don’t realize that problem-solving is even an option. To them, the choice is between {pro-Israeli, pro-Palestinian, neutral}.
Well, to be fair, I expect lots of people believe that they see both sides and just want to solve the problem. But parts of their minds just want to take sides. And I can’t really blame those parts, because taking sides can have significant social payoffs to them, and insignificant expected payoffs in the Middle East, and if they have somewhat egoistical values then taking sides might be a somewhat good deal for them.
(thanks for the—negative—feedback, I edited my answer to make it clearer)
Biases are data compression mistakes.
Talking about a neutrality bias as a laziness of the rational mind, I think Eliezer hurried up a bit when choosing the examples: he intended to point out some bad consequences in situations with a high difference in complexity.
The school director is tasteless in not putting the smallest effort because of “eh, they are just kids”. For them it is important. Injustice is intense at all ages; primates feel it. And the ‘wise’ school director is disgusting, yes. Easy answer to simple situation. Also a pacifist who dances for peace is ridiculous. And Yvain’s polarized example characters (those journalists who emotionally cherry-pick to convince you) are, well, negative. Easy answer to complex situation.
But the common theme here is that they share the fact that they are simplistic. We are biased when we feel disgust, a conclusion is strongly formed and maybe there to stay. Cherry picking/ selective observation at work here, those images jump into your eyes or at the surface of your memory. So if the examples are a bit off we may see distorted pictures of the idea—that is, we make wrong conclusions out of very partial examples. My point is that Yvain and Eliezer probably have the same take on the concept if they are to judge the same example. There are lazy ‘wise’ and lazy opinionated.
I’d risk saying that we can use a rule of thumb for complex situations such: Is the situation really complex and with unknown unknowns? If yes, then reset to the wise posture (as if being profound is some sort of attitude). Otherwise you’ll take one position too quickly and there is a great chance to became opinionated.
Those we legitimately call wise are always flirting with complexity. The wise equidistant attitude is like a joke, in the sense that it reveals the contrary, the imposture of the simplistic.
[sorry if this is a repost; my original attempt to post this was blocked as comment spam because it had too many links to other OB posts]
I’ve always hated that Dante quote. The hottest place in Hell is reserved for brutal dictators, mass murderers, torturers, and people who use flamethrowers on puppies—not for the Swiss.
I came to the exact opposite conclusion when pondering the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Most of the essays I’ve seen in newspapers and on bulletin boards are impassioned pleas to designate one side or the other as Evildoers and the other as the Brave Heroic Resistance by citing who stole whose land first, whose atrocities were slightly less provoked, which violations of which cease-fire were dastardly betrayals and which were necessary pre-emptive actions, et cetera.
Not only is this issue so open to bias that we have little hope of getting to the truth, but I doubt there’s much truth to be attained at all. Since “policy debates should not appear one-sided” and “our enemies are not innately evil”, it seems pretty likely that they’re two groups of people who both are doing what they honestly think is right and who both have some good points.
This isn’t an attempt to run away from the problem, it’s the first step toward solving the real problem. The real problem isn’t “who’s the hero and who’s the terrorist scumbag?” it’s “search solution-space for the solution that leads to the least suffering and the most peace and prosperity in the Middle East” There is a degree to which finding out who’s the evildoer is useful here so we can punish them as a deterrent, but it’s a pretty small degree, and the amount of energy people spend trying to determine it is completely out of proportion to the minimal gains it might produce.
And “how do we minimize suffering in the Middle East?” may be an easier question than “who’s to blame?” It’s about distributing land and resources to avoid people being starved or killed or oppressed, more a matter for economists and political scientists then for heated Internet debate. I’ve met conservatives who loathe the Palestinians and liberals who hate all Israelis who when asked supported exactly the same version of the two-state solution, but who’d never realized they agreed because they’d never gotten so far as “solution” before.
My defense of neutrality, then, would be something like this: human beings have the unfortunate tendency not to think of an issue as “finding the best solution in solution-space” but as “let’s make two opposing sides at the two extremes, who both loathe each other with the burning intensity of a thousand suns”. The issue then becomes “Which of these two sides is the Good and True and Beautiful, and which is Evil and Hates Our Freedom?” Thus the Democrats versus the Republicans or the Communists versus the Objectivists. I’d be terrified if any of them got one hundred percent control over policy-making. Thus, the Wise try to stay outside of these two opposing sides in order to seek the best policy solution in solution-space without being biased or distracted by the heroic us vs. them drama—and to ensure that both sides will take their proposed solution seriously without denouncing them as an other-side stooge.
A “neutral” of this sort may not care who started it, may not call one side “right” or “wrong”, may claim to be above the fray, may even come up with a solution that looks like a “compromise” to both sides, but isn’t abdicating judgment or responsibility.
Not that taking a side is never worth it. The Axis may have had one or two good points about the WWI reparations being unfair and such, but on the whole the balance of righteousness in WWII was so clearly on the Allies’ side that the most practical way to save the world was to give the Allies all the support you could. It’s always a trade-off between how ideal a solution is and how likely it is to be implemented.
The quickest way to minimize suffering is to nuke the Middle East into a sea of glass with the nukes spaced such that every person is vaporized instantly without feeling a thing. As they feel nothing from their instant vaporization, they are no longer suffering and no longer are capable of suffering or causing suffering.
Somehow I don’t see this as a viable solution.
Why not double down when you’re already so far in and just nuke the whole world?
EDIT: I want to point out, just in case Poe’s law kicks in, that this was not a serious suggestion.
While that’s not strictly in the utility function, it’d be important to eliminate all things capable of A) suffering and B) traveling into the Middle East, or to eliminate the Middle East itself (physically or politically).
Better just destroy everything in the lightcone to be sure.
You can’t make that decision. You’re just a grunt. No offense.
I concur.
Ah yes, the Scorched Earth Party foreign policy.
I think you are confused, this is the Solitudinem Party foreign policy, the Scorched Earth Party involves only the destruction of all non-Jews in the Middle East (facebook) and a lot of lead pipes. We of the Solitudinem Party do agree on some points with the Scorched Earthy Parties foreign policy but feel it doesn’t go far enough in ensuring an end to suffering and world peace. We take as our party motto and guiding principle this sound advice:
ubi solitudinem faciunt pacem appellant—Tacitus
It has a proud and honored history of effectively working. We feel we can more effectively implement that advice today leading to a perpetual world peace for at least the next few million years. It causes us deep physic pain to think that anyone (or anything) will ever experience the horrors of pain and suffering and our candidates promise to do everything in their power to eliminate these and all other social ills instantly.
Donations to our PAC are greatly appreciated and show your support for lasting world peace and a world free from all crime.
The Dante quote is particularly interesting in light of “James Burnham’s Dante: Politics as Wish”.
I have become slightly involved in the Israeli-Palestinian activism sphere on campus. I tried to square the reasonable and obviously correct comment above with the reasonable and obviously correct position of the pro-Palestinian side that maintaining neutrality in the conflict is the same as supporting the status quo. In fact, most people don’t realize that problem-solving is even an option. To them, the choice is between {pro-Israeli, pro-Palestinian, neutral}.
Well, to be fair, I expect lots of people believe that they see both sides and just want to solve the problem. But parts of their minds just want to take sides. And I can’t really blame those parts, because taking sides can have significant social payoffs to them, and insignificant expected payoffs in the Middle East, and if they have somewhat egoistical values then taking sides might be a somewhat good deal for them.
(thanks for the—negative—feedback, I edited my answer to make it clearer)
Biases are data compression mistakes.
Talking about a neutrality bias as a laziness of the rational mind, I think Eliezer hurried up a bit when choosing the examples: he intended to point out some bad consequences in situations with a high difference in complexity. The school director is tasteless in not putting the smallest effort because of “eh, they are just kids”. For them it is important. Injustice is intense at all ages; primates feel it. And the ‘wise’ school director is disgusting, yes. Easy answer to simple situation. Also a pacifist who dances for peace is ridiculous. And Yvain’s polarized example characters (those journalists who emotionally cherry-pick to convince you) are, well, negative. Easy answer to complex situation.
But the common theme here is that they share the fact that they are simplistic. We are biased when we feel disgust, a conclusion is strongly formed and maybe there to stay. Cherry picking/ selective observation at work here, those images jump into your eyes or at the surface of your memory. So if the examples are a bit off we may see distorted pictures of the idea—that is, we make wrong conclusions out of very partial examples. My point is that Yvain and Eliezer probably have the same take on the concept if they are to judge the same example. There are lazy ‘wise’ and lazy opinionated.
I’d risk saying that we can use a rule of thumb for complex situations such: Is the situation really complex and with unknown unknowns? If yes, then reset to the wise posture (as if being profound is some sort of attitude). Otherwise you’ll take one position too quickly and there is a great chance to became opinionated.
Those we legitimately call wise are always flirting with complexity. The wise equidistant attitude is like a joke, in the sense that it reveals the contrary, the imposture of the simplistic.