Alexander comments on Explanations as Hard to Vary Assertions

[Alexander]

Wow, this is honestly baffling. It sounds as if Deutsch doesn’t know about the generalised form of Bayes’ theorem (I’m sure he does know, which makes me feel worse).

$$P\left(H_i|E\right)=\frac{P\left(E|H_i\right)P\left(H_i\right)}{{\Sigma }_{j}P\left(E|H_j\right)P\left(H_j\right)}$$

You make an excellent point. Bayes’ theorem can be applied to all possible hypotheses, not just $H$ and $\neg H$.

If a top physicist can be this biased, then I cannot be surprised by anything anymore.

Thank you very much for your response Yoav Ravid.