I agree with you here. I made a mistake but on the bright side, I learnt a lot about the generalised form of Bayes’ theorem which applies to all possible hypotheses. This was also how Eliezer explained this relationship between the posterior and the numerator in Decoherence is Falsifiable and Testable. I was trying to simplify the relationship between Bayes’ theorem and Deutsch’s criterion for good explanations for the sake of the post but I oversimplified too much.
I still think that Bayes’ theorem and Deutsch’s criterion for good explanation are compatible and in a practical sense, one can be explained in terms of the other but, using the generalised form of Bayes is necessary.
I updated my post to explain that this part is slightly incorrect.
It seems that he makes the same mistake in that post (though he makes it clear in the rest of the essay that alternatives matter). You paraphrased him right.
Incidentally, Popper also thought that you couldn’t falsify a theory unless we have a non-ad hoc alternative that explains the data better.
I agree with you here. I made a mistake but on the bright side, I learnt a lot about the generalised form of Bayes’ theorem which applies to all possible hypotheses. This was also how Eliezer explained this relationship between the posterior and the numerator in Decoherence is Falsifiable and Testable. I was trying to simplify the relationship between Bayes’ theorem and Deutsch’s criterion for good explanations for the sake of the post but I oversimplified too much.
I still think that Bayes’ theorem and Deutsch’s criterion for good explanation are compatible and in a practical sense, one can be explained in terms of the other but, using the generalised form of Bayes is necessary.
I updated my post to explain that this part is slightly incorrect.
It seems that he makes the same mistake in that post (though he makes it clear in the rest of the essay that alternatives matter). You paraphrased him right.
Incidentally, Popper also thought that you couldn’t falsify a theory unless we have a non-ad hoc alternative that explains the data better.
This is so interesting. Do you know where I can read more about this? Conjectures and Refutations?