The option to buy SPY at $855 in January 2027 is going for $1.80 today, because most people don’t expect the price to get that high. But if in fact SPY increases in the intervening time by 50% from its present value ($582), as stipulated by kairos, then the option will ultimately be worth 1.5*582 − 855 ~ $18. I think this is where the 12x figure is coming from.
The option to buy SPY at $855 in January 2027 is going for $1.80 today, because most people don’t expect the price to get that high. But if in fact SPY increases in the intervening time by 50% from its present value ($582), as stipulated by kairos, then the option will ultimately be worth 1.5*582 − 855 ~ $18. I think this is where the 12x figure is coming from.
Thanks—I understand now. I thought $855 was the price SPY would reach if the current price increased by 50%.