I think the probability of nuclear war in the next 10 years is around 15%. This is mostly due to the extreme tensions that will occur during takeoff by default. Finding ways to avoid nuclear war is important.
Or resilience to nuclear war. What’s your probability of an engineered pandemic in the next 10 years?
I think I’m at a similar probability to nuclear war but I think the scenarios where biological weapons are used are mostly past a point of no return for humanity. I’m at 15%, most of which is scenarios where the rest of the humans are hunted down by misaligned AI and can’t rebuild civilization. Nuclear weapons use would likely be mundane and for non AI-takeover reasons and would likely result in an eventual rebuilding of civilization.
The main reason I expect an AI to use bioweapons with more likelihood than nuclear weapons in a full-scale takeover is that bioweapons would do much less damage to existing infrastructure and thus allow a larger and more complex minimal seed of industrial capacity from the AI to recover from.
Or resilience to nuclear war. What’s your probability of an engineered pandemic in the next 10 years?
Yes, resilience seems very neglected.
I think I’m at a similar probability to nuclear war but I think the scenarios where biological weapons are used are mostly past a point of no return for humanity. I’m at 15%, most of which is scenarios where the rest of the humans are hunted down by misaligned AI and can’t rebuild civilization. Nuclear weapons use would likely be mundane and for non AI-takeover reasons and would likely result in an eventual rebuilding of civilization.
The main reason I expect an AI to use bioweapons with more likelihood than nuclear weapons in a full-scale takeover is that bioweapons would do much less damage to existing infrastructure and thus allow a larger and more complex minimal seed of industrial capacity from the AI to recover from.