When you write the predictions, do you simply add optimism without changing the processes to reach a conclusion, or do you try to map out the “how” of making an outcome match more optimistic outcomes?
Good point, when I wrote down the predictions, I just used my usual unrealistically optimistic estimate of: “This is in principle doable in this time and I want to do it.”, i.e. my usual “planning” mode, without considering how often I usually fail to execute my “plans”. So in this case, I think I adjusted neither my optimism, nor my plans, I only put my estimate for success into actual numbers for the first time (and hoped that would do the trick).
When you write the predictions, do you simply add optimism without changing the processes to reach a conclusion, or do you try to map out the “how” of making an outcome match more optimistic outcomes?
Good point, when I wrote down the predictions, I just used my usual unrealistically optimistic estimate of: “This is in principle doable in this time and I want to do it.”, i.e. my usual “planning” mode, without considering how often I usually fail to execute my “plans”. So in this case, I think I adjusted neither my optimism, nor my plans, I only put my estimate for success into actual numbers for the first time (and hoped that would do the trick).