Unnamed comments on Original Research on Less Wrong

[Unnamed]

I don’t think it has been named elsewhere, but there is related research. Kahneman described something very similar to it in Thinking, Fast and Slow:

“The probability of a rare event will (often, not always) be overestimated, because of the confirmatory bias of memory. Thinking about that event, you try to make it true in your mind. A rare event will be overweighted if it specifically attracts attention. …. And when there is no overweighting, there will be neglect. When it comes to rare probabilities, our mind is not designed to get things quite right. For the residents of a planet that may be exposed to events no one has yet experienced, this is not good news.”