I would almost certainly take the latter. So would everyone I’ve ever known. What does that demonstrate?
I mean, it’s also almost certainly true that after a year of horrible torture, if you offered me a choice between another 49 years of horrible torture followed by 3^^^3 years of pleasant life, or death, I would choose death. But again… so what?
(nods) Likely, if I were somehow placed in a situation where I could make such a choice.
I mean, 50 years of horrible torture is scary as hell, and something I can just barely imagine. 3^^^3 years of pleasant life is so completely outside my experience that I can’t even begin to imagine it. The odds that I would make any kind of sensible expected-utility calculation in that situation are basically zero… hell, I don’t do all that well with real-life situations where I know that something mildly unpleasant now will bring me tangible benefits later.
I expect I would choose the torture-free option in all these cases, if I were somehow faced with the choice, for basically the same reason: 50 years of torture is scary, and 3^^^3 years is basically inconceivable.
I would like you to get to a point some time soon.
I would almost certainly take the latter. So would everyone I’ve ever known. What does that demonstrate?
I mean, it’s also almost certainly true that after a year of horrible torture, if you offered me a choice between another 49 years of horrible torture followed by 3^^^3 years of pleasant life, or death, I would choose death. But again… so what?
So, you’d opt for the worse option, according to this list?
(nods) Likely, if I were somehow placed in a situation where I could make such a choice.
I mean, 50 years of horrible torture is scary as hell, and something I can just barely imagine. 3^^^3 years of pleasant life is so completely outside my experience that I can’t even begin to imagine it. The odds that I would make any kind of sensible expected-utility calculation in that situation are basically zero… hell, I don’t do all that well with real-life situations where I know that something mildly unpleasant now will bring me tangible benefits later.
Again: what does that demonstrate?
In a moment!
What about some other guy, where would you put him?
What about the case, where the 50 years of torture is in the middle? Or in the end?
I expect I would choose the torture-free option in all these cases, if I were somehow faced with the choice, for basically the same reason: 50 years of torture is scary, and 3^^^3 years is basically inconceivable.
I would like you to get to a point some time soon.