Tracing out the chain of uncertainty. Lets say that I’m thinking about my business and come up with an idea. I’m uncertain how much to prioritize the idea vs the other swirling thoughts. If I thought it might cause my business to 2x revenue I’d obviously drop a lot and pursue it. Ok, how likely is that based on prior ideas? What reference class is the idea in? Under what world model is the business revenue particularly sensitive to the outputs of this idea? What’s the most uncertain part of that model? How would I quickly test it? Who would already know the answer? etc.
Looking forward to specific examples, pretty please.
Tracing out the chain of uncertainty. Lets say that I’m thinking about my business and come up with an idea. I’m uncertain how much to prioritize the idea vs the other swirling thoughts. If I thought it might cause my business to 2x revenue I’d obviously drop a lot and pursue it. Ok, how likely is that based on prior ideas? What reference class is the idea in? Under what world model is the business revenue particularly sensitive to the outputs of this idea? What’s the most uncertain part of that model? How would I quickly test it? Who would already know the answer? etc.