“what are all the little-metadata-flags associated with this prediction?”
Some metadata flags I associate with predictions:
what kinds of evidence went into this prediction? (‘did some research’, ‘have seen things like this before’, ‘mostly trusting/copying someone else’s prediction’)
if I’m taking other people’s predictions into account, there’s a metadata-flags for ‘what would my prediction be if I didn’t consider other people’s predictions?’
is this a domain in which I’m well calibrated?
is my prediction likely to change a lot, or have I already seen most of the evidence that I expect to for a while?
Some metadata flags I associate with predictions:
what kinds of evidence went into this prediction? (‘did some research’, ‘have seen things like this before’, ‘mostly trusting/copying someone else’s prediction’)
if I’m taking other people’s predictions into account, there’s a metadata-flags for ‘what would my prediction be if I didn’t consider other people’s predictions?’
is this a domain in which I’m well calibrated?
is my prediction likely to change a lot, or have I already seen most of the evidence that I expect to for a while?
how important is this?